Your regular Friday outlook comes early this week, thanks to Friday being a state holiday!
So, I have good news and bad news. First, the good news, since it happens first. Our stretch of tranquil weather will continue through Sunday. The weather map shows an area of high pressure over us now, which will slowly slide away to the east through Sunday.
The weather map as of 1 p.m. EST today shows high pressure over the Southeast , a weak storm over the Plains, and a strong storm approaching California.
Image source: Storm Prediction Center Hourly Mesoscale Analysis
Weather features hand-drawn by your humble author.
Temperatures will trend upward as the eastward drift of the high puts us in southerly return flow, with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s Friday, then mainly 60s across the state Saturday and Sunday. Some models show low-level moisture streaming in on Saturday as a weak disturbance now over the Plains states passes by north of us. We might see a bit of drizzle break out for a time, but it will just be a nuisance if it happens at all. So, we'll have mostly good weather for those traveling for Christmas.
This loop of visible satellite images shows clouds with the disturbance over the Plains states and a swirl of clouds with the more intense storm southwest of California.
Image source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Now, for the bad news. It looks like the storm moving into California today tracks eastward over the next few days, and we'll see rain from a trailing front as it moves through the eastern part of the country on Christmas Day, perhaps lingering into Tuesday. It will warm up a bit more as the storm gets close, with mainly 60s for highs across the state again on Christmas Day; perhaps parts of the Lowcountry will touch 70. Since it will be warm, we might see embedded thunderstorms, but the chances for severe weather look very low.
Since we're stuck with rain on Christmas, hopefully, we will see significant rain in the Upstate that puts a dent in the drought up there. Models give us reason to be optimistic on that as they all show at least a half inch, and most show 1-2 inches north of I-85. However, two of the last three storms have underperformed our rainfall expectations. So, it's hard to get too excited, but we'll take what rain we can get. Hopefully, coastal areas won't see much rain because there was an absolute deluge with Sunday's coastal storm. Models indicate the potential for a half inch to an inch and a half along our Coastal Plain.
Once that storm moves out, it cools down, but temperatures remain slightly above average until another cold front moves through Wednesday night or Thursday. Then temperatures drop to near average or a little below average. That front will likely be dry, and it may be several days past Christmas before we see another good chance for rain.
It's getting to be the time of year when we must be on the lookout for winter storms, but it doesn't look cold enough for us to get one until we're past New Year's. Long-range models have lately been consistent about a winter storm risk for the Upstate in early January. The weather pattern we'll head into around New Year's allows for this possibility, but this is too far away to get excited about.
I hope y'all have a great, merry, and restful Christmas!