We're finally in the home stretch of this year's hurricane season. There's only about a week left. I'm pleased to report that the Atlantic tropics are quiet as they usually are at the end of November.
We don't have any features of interest in the tropical Atlantic today. The African wave train has ended, and the environment over most of the Atlantic Basin has become hostile to tropical development due to cooling ocean waters and vertical wind shear caused by strong winds aloft. Odds of any more developments in the Atlantic for the rest of the season are further reduced by an increasingly unfavorable Madden-Julian Oscillation bringing sinking air over the tropics on this side of the world (here's a primer on the MJO if you're new here).
If we see a development this time of year, it's most likely to happen over the Caribbean Sea. Those waters remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone year-round (though there is almost always too much vertical shear for development from December to May there, and fewer disturbances occur that could become a tropical cyclone).
We will have to watch this area for surprises for the next week because a cold front has moved into the western Caribbean and has turned stationary. Some computer models spin up a weak storm down there next week, but none of the few that do show it moving toward South Carolina.
This visible satellite loop shows a band of clouds stretching from the northwestern Caribbean Sea to Bermuda along a stationary front, along with other patches of clouds over the rest of the tropical Atlantic.
Image source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
We may finally be done with the hurricane season here in South Carolina, but we see other types of disasters, too, so stay prepared. Along with hurricane.sc, SCEMD has earthquake.sc and a Winter Weather Guide to help you stay ready for the hazards we face in the Palmetto State.
With the tropics winding down and colder air descending upon South Carolina, it's time to "change equations" and focus more on weather features coming at us from the north and west instead of the tropical features that hit us from the south and east.
We certainly had a polar plunge this morning with lows in the 20s over the Upstate. My hometown of Rock Hill scored a 29,only slightly worse than a typical English test score for me in high school. Our neighbors in western North Carolina, North Georgia, and East Tennessee saw snowflakes last night and snow is even lying on the ground higher up. I have no way of knowing, but if you told me you were at Caesar's Head or Sassafras this morning and saw a flurry, I wouldn't call you a liar.
It's a sharp blast of cold, but it will be transient. Tonight looks clear and cold again, and then Saturday is cool but with less of a chill than today. After another crisp start on Sunday, a warm-up begins with pleasant 60s statewide in the afternoon. Further warming comes early next week as temperatures reach the high 60s in the Upstate on Monday and Tuesday and the rest of the state will reach the 70s. Sunshine will remain plentiful each day until Tuesday when another cold front moves in.
That front will be a lesser event for us. It will bring clouds and maybe a little rain as it moves through. Temperatures will drop noticeably behind the front for Wednesday but will remain above average for late November.
A second, more substantial front will move in for Thanksgiving Day. Timing is uncertain; it may not get here until later in the day or even at night along our coast, but we are at risk of seeing wet weather on Turkey Day. The rain may linger into Black Friday depending on how fast the front moves. It will turn brisk and colder otherwise that day. Next weekend looks chilly and dry from my current vantage point; proper football weather in the eyes of most fans.