Our stretch of quiet weather is coming to an end. A storm centered over Minnesota today is pulling a cold front eastward through the Plains, and this front will reach South Carolina on Sunday. Ahead of the front, warm air and moisture will surge northward through our area, but a turn to below-average temperatures will return behind the front for next week.
This loop of color-enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows clouds with a storm along the Canadian border and clouds with a trailing front over the Plains. A batch of clouds over the Gulf of Mexico is moving toward South Carolina ahead of this storm system.
Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The weather remains tranquil for the rest of today, but you'll notice clouds rolling in, and this afternoon will be warmer than the last few. The warmer air surging northward will bring highs in the 70s to most of the state both Saturday and Sunday, except for the Upstate remaining in the 60s. Saturday looks mainly cloudy with some intermittent rain in the Upstate and mostly cloudy elsewhere, with a shower or two affecting the coastal areas.
Having warm and moist air surging in ahead of the cold front means we have to be concerned about thunderstorms on Sunday. The setup isn't the greatest for severe storms, but there is potential for a few storms to cause locally damaging wind. There can also be a few isolated tornadoes. So, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has most of the state outlined with a level 1 of 5 severe storm risk on Sunday.
SPC's Severe Weather Outlook graphic for Sunday centered on South Carolina, showing a low-end severe storm risk for most of the state.
So, be on the lookout for thunderstorms on Sunday, especially over the Coastal Plain, where the best combination of warm, moist air (thunderstorm fuel) and shear (which can result in rotating thunderstorm updrafts and tornadoes) will occur. Right now, it looks as though only a few locations will see damaging thunderstorms, but the risk will be higher if there are breaks in the clouds and it ends up warmer than expected Sunday afternoon or early evening when the front reaches the area. I'll be watching and I'll update you if Sunday's situation starts looking more threatening than we think it will be right now.
Of course, the rain coming this weekend is good news, and it looks like the area currently seeing drought conditions across the Upstate and vicinity will get substantial rain. It won't be enough to end the drought, but I expect enough rain for a big dent in it.
This plot shows the forecast for total rainfall across South Carolina through Monday morning from the National Weather Service.
There will be an extended dry spell behind the front, so the more rain we get this weekend, the better. High pressure will sit over our region Monday through at least Friday. Temperatures drop back to the 50s for Monday through Wednesday, though parts of the Lowcountry might touch 60 on Wednesday. Most of the state will see each of those days start with temperatures at or below freezing. Later next week, a modest warmup should get more of our Coastal Plain above 60. Each day should feature sunshine.
Next weekend's weather is uncertain right now. A storm will move through the Southeast, and there is a good chance for it to bring us some more rain, but it's not guaranteed because the storm may pass too far to our south. That picture should become clearer early next week.