This weekend's weather won't be so great after all, much to the chagrin of parents and grandparents of a toddler with a second birthday party scheduled (I'm sure I'm not the only one). A cold front currently over the Great Lakes, Midwest, and Southern Plains that a week ago I hoped would move through South Carolina today will instead make slow progress into and through the state over the next few days. The front will keep our weather unsettled for at least parts of the state daily through Monday.
This loop of weather maps from the Weather Prediction Center shows the slow progression of a cold front through South Carolina.
The front will trigger showers and thunderstorms daily, including a risk for locally severe storms. For this afternoon into tonight, the risk for severe storms will mainly stay confined to areas along and north of I-20. As I prepare to hit the send button for this, we have severe thunderstorm warnings in effect for areas along I-85 west of Greenville, so be prepared to take action now if you're in that area.
The Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) outlook for today and tonight places most of the state in a level 1 of 5 severe storm risk area. The primary concern is locally damaging wind with more intense thunderstorms.
For Saturday, the risk covers nearly all of South Carolina.
Stronger storms rumbling through Saturday and Saturday night can cause locally damaging wind and hail. Storms will start popping up over the Upstate during the early to middle afternoon and march through the rest of the state into the night.
On Sunday, we'll see more showers and thunderstorms, with the Coastal Plain primarily at risk.
Showers and thunderstorms can occur at any time on Sunday, but thunderstorms will mainly be confined to the afternoon and evening. Once again, the more intense storms may cause damaging wind and hail. Cooler and less humid air will filter into the Upstate by the afternoon, coastal areas remain humid but it won't be as warm as the near-summery warmth we have today and will experience again Saturday.
By Monday, the front will mostly be offshore, and most of the state will enjoy a nice day, but there may be enough moisture hanging around near the coast for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm.
Tuesday may be the only dry day statewide next week because a series of disturbances will slowly drift through the Southeast later next week, and we may even see them become fully detached into an upper-level low that swirls over the region for an extended period. With that weather pattern comes the potential for more needed rain, but also the potential for thunderstorms. The complexity of the weather pattern later next week makes nailing down specifics challenging, but from my vantage point, Wednesday through at least Friday next week all feature a chance for rain, and it could remain unsettled into next weekend.
Over the last week, we've had some wins and losses in our battle with drought. The Upstate has fared well with rainfall, so there has been some improvement there. However, most coastal areas have not seen much rain, so drought in most of our Coastal Plain has either remained steady or worsened.
The silver lining in the clouds of our unsettled weather pattern in the coming days is that we should be able to beat back the drought conditions, at least somewhat. The rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center through Monday looks promising for the northern parts of the state.
This map shows the rainfall forecast by the Weather Prediction Center through 8 a.m. Tuesday, with most areas along and north of I-20 forecast to see 1.0-1.5 inches.
Image Source: Weathermodels.com
It's too early to make specific forecasts of rainfall amounts during the second wave of unsettled weather starting Wednesday, but I'm optimistic that we will put more dents into our drought.