Today, a cold front is moving through, but it's moisture-starved and only generating patchy clouds and a sprinkle here and there over the Lowcountry. Most of us will enjoy a pleasant afternoon and evening with cooler and dry air nosing in from the north.
However, the front will become stationary over the Southeast this weekend, beginning a period of unsettled weather. Saturday looks dry for the most part, with a mix of clouds and sun, but increasing moisture from a weak upper-level disturbance moving in will result in stray showers breaking out late or in the evening over the Upstate and Central Savannah River Area (CSRA), perhaps affecting more of the state Saturday night.
The front remains over us on Sunday; the upper-level disturbance will move out, but a second will move in during the afternoon. So, clouds will limit sunshine, and coastal parts of the state can be damp to start. Then, a more substantial wave of showers and thunderstorms will move through during the afternoon and at night. There might even be a locally severe storm over the Lowcountry and CSRA; there is a risk for locally damaging wind and hail. It's a low-end risk, with the Storm Prediction Center having the area at level 1 of 5 severe storm risk.
This second wave of moisture will move out Sunday night or early Monday, but another one will move in later Monday. That means we'll see more clouds than sunshine, with much of the state wet to start, a break in the rain for much of the day, and then it will turn wet again later in the day or at night. Once again, there can be a thunderstorm, especially in the Lowcountry. The Lowcountry might even see a locally severe storm Monday afternoon or night. So, the forecast is not the greatest for Memorial Day, but it won't be a total washout.
The front will remain over the Southeast through the rest of next week, with more upper-level disturbances moving through. However, the timing becomes more uncertain past Monday. Our computer models agree that a more substantial storm will bring us significant rain and thunderstorms (maybe even heavy and gusty storms) Tuesday into Tuesday night and that we'll remain unsettled with daily chances for rain through the end of next week and maybe into next weekend.
The unsettled stretch means our temperatures will be held down by clouds and rain each day. Highs will only be in the 70s and 80s today and Saturday as cooler air noses in from the north. However, the Lowcountry will be toasty on Saturday, reaching the middle to upper 80s. Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday all look relatively cool, with highs mostly in the upper 70s to lower 80s from north to south. Warmer air may surge northward on Tuesday before it gets beaten southward again Wednesday into Thursday.
We continue to hold on to drought conditions over a part of our Coastal Plain, but the situation is much better than it was a couple of weeks ago elsewhere.
Rain chances over the next week should bring further improvements to those areas still dealing with drought.
One more thing today while I have your attention. Y'all know it's Hurricane Preparedness Month here in South Carolina, right? Hurricane season is right around the corner, starting on June 1 (that's a week from Sunday). Are you ready? Do you have disaster supplies on hand? Do you know your evacuation zone if you live along the coast? Do you have proper insurance coverage for your home? Now is the time to deal with these issues. You will find lots more advice on hurricane prep at hurricane.sc. If you're old-fashioned, you can get a printed copy of the SC Hurricane Guide at South Carolina Welcome Centers, SCDMV offices near our coast, and Walgreens stores statewide.
