Key Points:
- Confidence is good that next week will be the coldest of the winter so far.
- Concern is increasing that a storm will cross the Southeast around the middle of next week that may bring impactful snow and ice to some or all of South Carolina.
- There is considerable uncertainty about the storm's track and intensity. Those are keys to how the storm will affect South Carolina. The uncertainty makes it unreasonable to predict amounts of ice and snow at this range.
- Timing is also uncertain, but most model guidance shows the storm beginning between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday morning.
- Cold weather behind the storm means that the effects of a winter storm, should they be significant, would linger for at least a few days after the storm ends.
I'm sure that many of y'all are hearing the social media and word-of-mouth buzz about how the weather next week is shaping up. I hope this helps you think more clearly about what we could be up against.
The weather pattern has been cold for a while, and we'll shift to an even colder weather pattern next week. Next week and the weekend should bring us the coldest air of this winter so far. That's the one thing we're confident about next week. 60° and sunny is one thing I can rule out next week and weekend. Highs in the 30s and lows in the teens and 20s should be common across South Carolina next week.
In addition, we expect to see at least one storm system move through the Southeast while it's so cold, so we're at risk of a winter storm. It could be one bigger storm or a 1-2 punch of less serious storms, but the former looks more likely.
If you think we have a lot of uncertainty about storm track and intensity 2-3 days away as we did last week, well, it's much worse when you're about a week away. While it might indeed be a doozy of a winter storm, it might also disappoint snow enthusiasts terribly. Current possibilities range from a storm tracking far enough north that most of the state sees rain to a storm center tracking to our south (taking an ideal Palmetto State snowstorm track), with most or all of the state seeing some snow and/or ice. Some models show the storm getting strong even before it turns up the East Coast, while others show a weaker storm that mostly sidesteps the people up north. As usual, the Upstate has the best odds of seeing a winter storm, but the odds are not zero, even in the Lowcountry.
A stronger storm might also have a strong wind component, especially along our coast.
As for timing, midweek is the most likely time of concern. I have been telling partners that the best estimate for the start time is between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday morning. That's a wide range, but it's the best we can do a week away when we're in a challenging weather pattern for the models.
What's the point of all this? I have a weather pulpit, and I think it's important to preach preparedness from it. We're not known for big winter storms here in South Carolina, but anyone who's been here for a while knows it happens once in a blue moon, and they have a lot of impact when they hit us. So, it's important to be ready, as with any other disaster that can happen here (like hurricanes and earthquakes). You should always have a disaster kit stocked up so you can handle the first few days of recovery on your own. Our friends at SCEMD have their SC Severe Winter Weather Guide to, uh, guide you through the prep process.
I'll leave you with this graphic, output from the medium-range ensemble model run by the ECMWF (makers of everyone's favorite model, "The Euro"), which gives its opinion on the chance for at least three inches of snow next week. It's the most bullish on snow chances, with other models showing lower chances due to them either showing more ice or just rain.
Image source: WeatherBELL
A winter storm is far from a lock, but a 30-40% chance of three inches of snow from our best-performing computer guidance is about as strong a signal for a winter storm as you'll get from a week out.
I'll check in again with the usual Friday edition. Hopefully, the picture will get clearer by then, but it won't be sharp until Sunday or Monday.