The Atlantic tropics remain mostly tranquil today. As expected, Tropical Storm Andrea lasted only about 24 hours in total; it's now long gone. We have no organized tropical cyclones, and it's unlikely that one will form over the next week. However, there are a few features to watch.
We have four tropical waves to track:
- Along 90° west, mainly over the Yucatan Peninsula
- Along 87° west, causing thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Central America
- Along 53° west, east of the Lesser Antilles
- Along 40° west, midway between Cabo Verde and the Lesser Antilles
Today, we don't have any mid-latitude storms or other swirls over the subtropical Atlantic that require monitoring for a potential tropical transition, similar to what occurred with Andrea earlier this week.
This loop of visible satellite imagery shows clouds with tropical waves over and near the Yucatan Peninsula and another interesting tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles. There is also a band of clouds over the area between 35° and 40° north along a cold front.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The closely spaced tropical waves over Central America, the western Caribbean, southern Mexico, and the Bay of Campeche will need to be closely monitored over the next few days. It's unlikely that we will see a tropical cyclone form here, but there's a slight chance of it, according to the National Hurricane Center.
They're giving this feature a 20% chance to become a tropical cyclone over the Bay of Campeche before it moves into Mexico later Sunday or Sunday night. If it did and reached tropical storm strength, it would be named Barry. Either way, it won't be a problem for us in South Carolina.
The tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles is interesting because there is a broad turning motion in the clouds with it and the presence of a few thunderstorms in the area. However, strong upper-level westerly winds are causing vertical wind shear, so it's unlikely to develop in the short term. This may change when it reaches the western Caribbean Sea next week. The other tropical wave over the middle of the tropical Atlantic looks generally monotonous on weather satellite imagery, with no associated thunderstorms and no signs of spin.
In the long-range, it looks like a cold front will push unusually far to the south before becoming stationary later next week. Stationary fronts over the Gulf of Mexico and southwestern Atlantic this time of year can be a breeding ground for tropical cyclones, so that will be something to watch, assuming our computer model guidance is handling that front well.
As always, I urge you to prepare for storms that may affect us later in the season. We have one month of hurricane season down but five more to go. If you need prep advice, hurricane.sc is the place to go.
Normalcy Returns This Weekend
We've seen a string of oddball events this week: a notable severe storm outbreak in June, Thursday's 'fireball' meteor over Georgia seen by many South Carolinians, including yours truly, and transient Andrea over the subtropical Atlantic. So, it pleases me to say that our weather will be mostly routine through the weekend and the first part of next week. Look for sunshine and building cumulus clouds each day. We can expect a scattering of afternoon and evening thunderstorms daily, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s through Tuesday. Remember that routine summertime storms can include isolated severe storms that may cause locally damaging winds. The risk of damaging winds today is high enough that the Storm Prediction Center has covered a part of the state with a level 1 of 5 risk area on their Severe Weather Outlook for today and tonight.
Things change, at least marginally, by the middle of next week. As mentioned above, we have good agreement among our computer models that a cold front will push into the Southeast around the middle of next week and become stationary. That's an unusual event, but in a good way because it will mean less heat for us and an increase in daily thunderstorm coverage. The potential downsides are that we might see an increased risk for locally damaging storms starting on Wednesday and the risk of sneaky tropical cyclone development mentioned above.
The front is likely to dissipate next weekend as another upper-level ridge develops over the eastern states. This feature appears weaker than the one that brought the heat wave to us earlier in the week, but it could still be strong enough to get much of the state's temperatures above 95° next weekend.