A cold front moving in from the northwest has spawned a line of thunderstorms that is crossing the Upstate as this arrives in your inbox. The line of thunderstorms will sweep across the rest of the Palmetto State through early evening.
A weather radar composite from the MRMS system ending at 2:20 p.m.
Image source: Weathermodels.com
The storms will be severe in some areas, perhaps many areas, causing damaging wind that could be widespread. A few places may also see damaging hail, and a few isolated tornadoes may occur as well. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our risk level from Thursday, placing most of the state at risk level 3 of 5, with the remainder at level 2.
The upgrade is due to the risk of widespread damaging straight-line winds from the storms, as well as higher-end potential wind speeds (gusts of around 70 mph are possible from the strongest storms).
The storms will make steady progress across the state, reaching the I-20 Corridor in the 4-5 p.m. range, then to the coast in the 6-8 p.m. range. I expect that the severe storm risk will be over for even the coastal areas by 9 p.m.
The severe risk will be a one-shot thing. Once the line of thunderstorms passes through your area and moves by to the southeast, your location will be in the clear.
Columbia metro subscribers (really, most of the I-20 Corridor), the storms likely hit during the evening rush, as we saw on Thursday. As if driving through Columbia rush hour traffic alone isn't stressful enough! The last thing you want to do on a Friday evening is hang out at work for an extra 30-60 minutes, but it might turn out to be the best choice to keep from having to drive through severe thunderstorms. On the other hand, this may be your excuse to use a couple of hours of comp time to head home early! Check the radar before heading home this afternoon, and do what's best for you.
If you have not done so, please review severe storm and tornado safety tips ahead of the storms:
Tornado Safety from the National Weather Service
Cooler and drier air will move in behind the front tonight and set the stage for a pretty Saturday. Most of the state will see highs in the lower to middle 80s. However, Sunday isn't looking as nice as a second cold front will move through. The front won't have as much moisture to work with, but mainly areas along and north of I-20 can see an afternoon shower or thunderstorm. The severe storm risk will be minimal, but I can't rule out a few small areas seeing damaging wind. Sunday's highs will also range from the lower to middle 80s from north to south.
Another little push of drier air will come into the state behind that front on Monday, but the front will be dissipating near our coast. So, there is a slight chance for a pop-up shower near the coast on Monday, while the rest of the state sees a nice day with highs in the lower to middle 80s again.
After that, we will see a warming trend that takes our temperatures to more typical early June readings. We'll keep the humidity low on Tuesday, but the highs will be mostly in the 85-90° range (it'll be cooler in the mountains and on the beaches).
Wednesday into Thursday will bring us even warmer readings, with most areas along and south of I-20 creeping up to the lower 90s. Humidity will also trend upward, so it will feel summery late next week.
Friday and Saturday will likely be summery as well, with most of the state reaching the lower to perhaps middle 90s. There's a chance we'll see a cold front get this far south again by next Sunday, but no promises, as we usually start to see them stall to our north by the time we get to June.
So ... Sunday is June 1. Y'all remember that's the start of the Atlantic hurricane season, right? You should be prepping. To paraphrase the words of National Weather Service Director Ken Graham from his talk during the release of NOAA's seasonal outlook for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season:
There are no lines at the home improvement stores for things like plywood and generators right now.
There are no shortages at the grocery stores for water, nonperishable foods, and toilet paper.
There might be lines at the gas stations, but you won't have to wait long (unless it's at one of the warehouse clubs, which all need to install more pumps and manage their traffic better).
If you order supplies online this weekend, you'll almost certainly get it before a storm hits.
So take the time to prepare now so you're ready when a storm hits!
I bring all this up for a reason. I know some of y'all are model-watchers, and you probably have noticed the GFS model is showing a storm forming during the second week of June and making a beeline for us. That's a long way out, and it's only one model, but given the weather pattern shaping up in mid-June, I have to consider it one of several reasonable possibilities. It's far too early to sound alarms, but I urge you to be ready for this possibility. Have your proper preseason preparations in place because there's a chance we'll have to hit the ground running with this year's hurricane season. As always, you can find prep tips at hurricane.sc.