Here's an update on our severe thunderstorm risks through Wednesday. There isn't much change for today; the area near and north of I-20 will see isolated thunderstorms pop up this afternoon into the evening, and any storm can be severe with locally damaging wind and hail.
The change from Monday is that the cold front that will move through tonight and early Wednesday is coming in a little faster than previously thought. That results in a better chance that dangerous storms erupting to our west this afternoon and evening will survive into the Palmetto State tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has upped our severe storm risk in their Day 1 outlook, which covers 8 a.m. today to 8 a.m. Wednesday. Some leftover risk continues past 8 a.m. Wednesday on the Day 2 outlook.
The storms to our west later today and tonight will cause potentially widespread damaging winds and hail, along with isolated tornadoes. They are likely to weaken as they arrive in South Carolina just after midnight, but could still be potent with locally damaging wind, hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. The risk level continues to drop as the line of storms moves through the state, but isolated damaging wind and hail will remain a concern with the storms into Wednesday morning before the storms move offshore.
There's a slight chance for another isolated thunderstorm or two to pop up along the coast starting around midday Wednesday; any storm that does form may cause locally damaging wind and hail.
This won't be a major severe storm outbreak, but it's coming at night for parts of the state, which is a problem on its own. When storms hit when most people are sleeping, people tend to get caught off guard. You can prevent this by having at least two ways to be alerted to warnings issued by the National Weather Service. That includes properly configured mobile emergency alerts, a weather app on your mobile device, and a weather radio. You'll also want to know what to do if a tornado warning is issued in your area, because you'll probably be too groggy to figure that out when your phone blows up at 1:15 a.m. because a tornado warning just came out. So, if you haven't already, take some time to decide on the best tornado shelter in your house (the lowest floor in the interior with as many walls as possible between you and the outdoors).
Beyond Wednesday:
- Thursday will be cooler and less humid, making it a nice day for most of the state. However, a pop-up afternoon shower can't be ruled out near the North Carolina state line.
- Mainly sunny Friday; beautiful with highs only in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Enjoy that!
- Increasing cloudiness Saturday, but nice overall with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s across the state.
- The next chance for rain comes Saturday night into Sunday. Timing remains uncertain. Thunderstorms may be involved.
- Sunday could be the start of another unsettled period that lasts through much of next week. We could still use the rain along the coast.