Sorry for the late update today, y'all. A coworker asked me to help diagnose problems with one of our weather stations at the Webb Wildlife Center in Hampton County today, a 2-hour drive from Columbia. It sure is pretty down there.
A photo of the access road to the Webb Wildlife Center in southern Hampton County, looking toward the entrance on Treadwell Road.
It was also toasty. It reached the 80s in that part of the state! In fact, we saw some record highs in parts of the Palmetto State today, along with a tied January record high in Charleston at 83°. However, changes are afoot. A storm now centered near Lubbock, Texas, is headed this way to bring us an unsettled weekend.
This loop of visible satellite imagery (GOES-East Band 2) shows a storm swirling over the southern Plains states drifting toward South Carolina.
The storm center will pass by to the northwest of us later Saturday and Saturday night. It will pull warm front (as if it wasn't already warm enough) northward through South Carolina with showers Saturday and steadier rain in the Upstate. Then, a cold front will cross the state Saturday night and early Sunday with showers and thunderstorms.
Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding are risks for most of the state along and north of I-20 as the storm moves through the region. The primary area of concern will be along and northwest of I-85 in the Upstate. As of late Friday, a flood watch was in effect for the mountainous sliver of our state in northern Oconee, Pickens, and Greenville Counties.
The Weather Prediction Center's Excessive Rainfall Outlook graphic for Saturday with South Carolina highlighted.
Most areas along and northwest of I-85 will see at least an inch of rain Saturday through Saturday night, with heavier rains of up to three inches in the areas under a flood watch. Recent rains have saturated the soil in this area, so flooding is a concern. What a turnaround from the severe drought conditions of late November! Thanks, El Niño, which tends to cause wet winter weather in South Carolina.
The other concern for this weekend is locally severe thunderstorms, also focused on the Upstate.
The Storm Prediction Center's Severe Weather Outlook graphic with South Carolina highlighted shows the Upstate and vicinity at level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms Saturday and Saturday night.
Two rounds of thunderstorms will affect the Upstate thanks to the approaching storm. The first is gaining steam in Southeast Texas and Louisiana this evening and will barrel across the Southeast tonight and Saturday, reaching the Upstate late Saturday as it decays. A second wave of storms will affect the region as the cold front moves through later Saturday evening. The stronger thunderstorms could be capable of causing locally damaging wind and an isolated tornado. Over the rest of the state, scattered showers will pass through later Saturday night and early Sunday. A few places could see a thunderstorm. The severe storm risk looks very low, but there is uncertainty. With the air mass ahead of the cold front unusually warm and humid, a damaging storm can't totally be ruled out. Keep an eye out for updates. I'll send an update later Saturday if it looks like more of the state will be at risk for severe storms or if the risk level increases.
Stay alert for flood and severe storm watches and warnings through Saturday night if you live in the Upstate and adjacent areas. It wouldn't hurt to review flooding and severe storm safety tips from the prep experts at SCEMD.
Behind the storm, look for a brisk and cooler Sunday; lingering clouds will occasionally break, and there might be a leftover shower near the North Carolina line. Speaking of the land of vinegar-and-tomato sauce, there will be snow in their high mountains Sunday night into Monday, though not much.
The step-down in temperatures will only be back to average for late January (that is, highs ranging from the mid-50s in the Upstate to low 60s in the Lowcountry). Monday and Tuesday look mainly sunny and dry. Another weather system will move through with limited moisture on Wednesday, with clouds and showers. Chillier air accompanies this system, so Wednesday and Thursday will be cooler than average for this time of year. We likely see a couple of dry and more seasonable days next Friday and Saturday before we see another storm system reach us next Sunday or Monday to bring another chance of rain.
We remain on track for a turn to a colder weather pattern again during the February 5-10 time frame, but devils remain in the details at this range.