The busy weather pattern continues as another storm system affecting the West today will reach us this weekend. Behind it, we will return to a cold weather pattern with a chance for a winter storm over parts of the state next week.
Our weather is quiet today, with high pressure centered nearby. The high will slide away to the east tonight, allowing a warm front to lift northward through South Carolina on Saturday. The warm front will produce light rain over the Upstate, which will remain locked into a wedge of chilly air that keeps highs in the 40s. The Coastal Plain will see warm and humid air infiltrate, sending highs into the 60s and 70s. Here, the warm front will be able to trigger a scattering of showers, with a few spots getting a heavier thunderstorm.
Sunrise over our Fruited Plain allows visible satellite imagery to reveal a few items of interest:
- A stationary front over Texas, Louisiana, and Florida will lift northward through South Carolina as a warm front on Saturday.
- A mass of clouds over the northern Plains and upper Midwest is associated with a weak storm system heading eastward.
- More clouds over the West generated by an eastward-moving storm that will pull a cold front through South Carolina on Sunday.
- A mostly clear sky over the Northeast reveals snow cover over New England; only patchy clouds are over the Southeast.
Image source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The storm will pass to our north through the Great Lakes and Northeast Saturday night into Sunday. The storm will pull a sharp cold front through the state on Sunday. The front will generate a band of rain and thunderstorms, affecting the Upstate during the morning, the Midlands around midday, and then the Coastal Plain during the early afternoon.
The front will also bring us a period of strong wind. Southwest winds will increase as the front approaches, with gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph. The thunderstorms along the front could cause damaging wind gusts over 50 mph. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the state covered with a level 1 of 5 risk area for Sunday to account for this.
Behind the front, winds turn to the west and lessen but will gust to around 30 mph the rest of the day. Highs will range from the lower 60s in the Upstate to the lower 70s in the Midlands and Coastal Plain. Overall, Sunday looks challenging for travelers and pickleball players across the Palmetto State.
Colder air will rush into the state Sunday night into Monday as we return to a cold weather pattern. Monday's highs will only be in the 50s, mostly lower to middle 50s, with a breeze that makes it feel like the 30s and 40s most of the time. Tuesday will also be dry and chilly, with highs mainly in the 50s; the sun will fade behind clouds in the afternoon as the next storm system approaches.
We have a challenging forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night. It looks just cold enough for some concerns for a wintry mix over the northern part of the state, primarily the Upstate and Catawba River Area. For now, it looks like the rest of the state will get a soaking cold rain, though milder air may be able to invade areas near the coast. Of course, we have the usual uncertainties with this storm from five days out; storm track, storm intensity, available moisture, and how cold it will be during the storm are all in question. This time, frigid air arriving from Canada as the storm crosses the South will aim more for Texas than the southeastern states. So, the setup is different than with January's storm, when cold air overwhelmed everything, and the cold air suppressed the storm southward. This time, we'll have a more typical setup where most of the state gets rain, and the Upstate will be the main area at risk for winter weather. However, we won't know what areas will get a winter storm and which areas will only see rain until we get closer to the event.
Wednesday morning's weather map from the Weather Prediction Center shows rain over the Southeast and cold air trying to muscle in to cause snow and ice over the Mid-Atlantic.
As the storm moves away, some frigid air rivaling what we saw in January will move in. There's a chance it blasts in before the storm moves out Wednesday night, causing rain to end as snow or sleet over most of the state early Thursday. However, the central theme for Thursday will be blustery and cold weather with clearing. Friday will likely be cold and dry. We will likely be affected by a weaker storm system next weekend. It's too early to say if it will remain cold enough for a minor winter weather event. There's a chance, but it's too early to get excited about it.