We have reached the end of February, and meteorological spring (the three months after the three coldest and before the three warmest) begins Saturday. Welcome to weather whiplash season. During the transition months, we tend to abruptly shift from a warm regime to a cold one. For example, the high in Columbia on Thursday was 80°, but this morning's low was 40°. We'll bounce more between warm and cold air masses over the coming week.
The cold front that moved through Thursday takes us from May-like to March-like; our temperatures remain above average through Saturday. We'll still reach the upper 60s and 70s today, and most of the state will reach the 70s on Saturday. Another cold front is on the way, though. It's over the northern Plains states today and will move through the Palmetto State on Saturday night.
Sunrise over our Fruited Plain allows visible satellite imagery to reveal cloud features:
- A band of clouds off the Atlantic coast and Florida associated with the cold front that crossed South Carolina Thursday.
- A mass of clouds over the Great Lakes generated by an Alberta Clipper storm. A band of clouds along a cold front trails the storm into North Dakota.
- Snow cover is evident over the mountain ranges of the western U. S.
Ahead of the front today and Saturday, we remain breezy, warm, and dry; it will be much like Thursday except about 10° cooler. Like Thursday, the gusty breeze and low relative humidity will increase the wildfire risk. So, be careful with things that can start a fire. It's not a time for burning yard waste outdoors. Properly dispose of smoking materials, and don't park your car over leaves or dry grass.
Unfortunately, Saturday night's front will not have any moisture to work with, so it will not generate any rain. More on that below.
The change coming for Sunday will be substantial because arctic air will follow Saturday night's front. Sunday's highs will only be in the 50s; it may struggle to even reach 50 across the north.
Monday and Tuesday are tranquil days as an area of high pressure drifts through the region. Monday will remain cool with highs in the 50s and low 60s, but return flow around the departing high will warm most of the state back to the 70s again.
By Tuesday, a powerful storm system will take shape over the southern Plains states and track to the Great Lakes by Wednesday. A trailing cold front will rake across the South Tuesday into Wednesday, triggering thunderstorms. All signs currently point toward a major severe thunderstorm and tornado outbreak on Tuesday over the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. The storms will shift toward the East Coast on Wednesday.
The setup looks right for severe storms in South Carolina on Wednesday. Warm and humid air will surge northward ahead of the approaching front (with highs mainly in the lower to middle 70s that day), and the computer models agree that the front will move through during the afternoon and evening when it's most unstable. If the models are giving us good guidance, then Wednesday's storms will bring a risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes. It's still six days out, so the forecast can change, but it's unusual for us to have good model agreement on an event like this at this range. What's also unusual is that the forecasters at the Storm Prediction Center have enough confidence to put South Carolina in a risk area on their outlook for Day 6.
South Carolina and surrounding states are highlighted with a severe storm risk
on the Storm Prediction Center's Day 6 outlook.
The potential for a severe storm outbreak several days from now will indeed generate hype on social media. What do you do about it now? You can review or create your personal severe weather plan this weekend because you want to decide what to do in advance. You may find yourself on Wednesday or another day with a tornado seconds away. There isn't time to decide what to do in those situations; you only have time to react. Decide on your best shelter and course of action ahead of severe storm outbreaks. You can get help with this from SCEMD and the National Weather Service.
Behind Wednesday's cold front, chilly air returns. It's likely to be dry Thursday and Friday, with highs in the 50s. Early signs are that the next storm in line will bring us a chance for rain next weekend (the exact timing is in question). It will probably be a cold rain, with the storm taking a track that would bring us a chance for a winter storm (along the Gulf Coast and then along our coast) if it's cold enough. However, it looks like it won't be cold enough this time.
Our drought situation has not changed since last week. Much of the Upstate remains in good shape, but it's abnormally dry or in a drought elsewhere in South Carolina. Thursday's cold front brought substantial rain to only small areas and was not very helpful. We will remain dry until Wednesday's storms, so we'll likely see a worsening of the drought conditions on Tuesday's update.
Rain events over the next 10 days, including Wednesday's thunderstorms and next weekend's storm, should help the drought situation, but it's too early to say how much rain will result from those two events.
