First, happy Independence Day, y'all! Snarky George Washington reminds you to be careful with those fireworks while asking your British friends about their day at work.
Now, to focus on the situation off the Southeast Coast. An area of low pressure with an associated cluster of thunderstorms is forming east of Jacksonville.
Visible satellite imagery of the developing storm east of northern Florida
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
It's been dubbed Invest Area 92L. Now that an entity has formed, we can track it more effectively and begin running the hurricane models on it. The early runs of hurricane models will only have so much use, but here's the latest salvo of spaghetti plots:
Image Source: Weathermodels.com
It's frustrating to deal with storms that develop close to home because there's a lot of uncertainty, and we might not know what's about to happen until it's hours away. It's good that these systems typically remain weak.
It's too early to pinpoint it, but a track into or near South Carolina looks likely. A critical difference from Thursday is that the computer models show the storm tracking northward more slowly, bringing the storm's worst impacts from Saturday night into Sunday, 6-12 hours later. The slower forward motion would give it more time over water to intensify and increase the concern for heavy rainfall along the storm's track.
That said, most models indicate that this feature will remain on the weak side, with the most likely scenario is that we see a tropical depression or weak tropical storm and the worst-case scenario being a midrange tropical storm or an equivalent non-tropical storm. While the waters off our coast are warm (generally 80-84°), upper-level westerly to southwesterly winds are causing some vertical shear. Upper winds will weaken and become more favorable for development tonight into Saturday.
Although there remains a lot we don't know about potential impacts, I can still say with confidence that much of our Coastal Plain will experience heavy rainfall on Saturday night and Sunday. Much of the area is likely to receive 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. That would be enough for some localized minor flooding. The extent of the heavy rain inland will depend on the storm track, but Sunday could bring rain amounts locally exceeding an inch in the I-20 Corridor. One thing to watch for is that some models indicate the storm will move slowly or stall near our coast on Sunday into Monday.
It will turn windy along our coast on Saturday afternoon, and the blustery conditions will continue through Sunday. The strength of the winds will depend on whether this feature develops into a tropical cyclone and how much it can intensify before it makes landfall. It's also too early to say where any damaging winds might occur.
The same is true for the potential storm surge; however, we have low astronomical tides this weekend, so the 1-2 foot storm surge we might see would not be able to cause major coastal flooding, even if the worst occurred at high tide.
Areas to the right of where the center comes ashore would be at risk for an isolated tornado, mainly near the coast.
Also, don't forget that seas on our coastal water and the surf at our beaches will be rough this weekend. We'll likely have a high rip current risk both days at the beaches.
These potential impacts assume that the current consensus view that a storm track into South Carolina is correct. There remains enough uncertainty that a track bringing the worst of the storm into North Carolina is possible.
We'll be watching it closely. You'll want to ensure that your storm prep is in place. If you need prep advice, hurricane.sc is the place to go.
Elsewhere in the tropics:
Tropical waves are along 87° west (mainly over Central America), along 66° west (over the eastern Caribbean Sea), and 26° west (near Cabo Verde). None are producing significant thunderstorm activity, and none are any concern for development in the short term. The wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic appears interesting on satellite imagery, as it is generating a large whirl of low cloudiness. However, the atmosphere over this part of the Atlantic is too stable for thunderstorms to develop. The feature appears more concerning than it is; it has a bark worse than its bite. Computer models indicate that this feature will track to the area east of the Bahamas by the middle of next week, where it may find more favorable conditions.
A wide-angle view of visible satellite imagery across the Atlantic Basin
reveals the three tropical waves to track.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Our developing storm offshore is the primary driver of our weather for the next 2-3 days, depending on how fast it moves out. The coastal areas will be breezy to windy and wet, while the Upstate is likely to remain mainly rain-free and warm through the weekend, with only stray pop-up afternoon thunderstorms. However, it won't be raining all the time at the coast, and it won't be a total washout. There will be breaks in between the bands of rain that move ashore.
We likely return to more typical summertime weather starting Monday (assuming the storm doesn't get stuck along our coast, there appears to be only a slight chance for that to happen). Temperatures are likely to trend upward with highs in the lower to middle 90s on Tuesday and Wednesday; there could be upper 90s in the usual hot spots along I-20. Afternoon thunderstorms those days will be few and far between.
Another cold front will push unusually far to the south later next week, increasing our chances for rain and thunderstorms again as the heat eases. If the front reaches our coastal waters before becoming stationary, we'll have to be on the lookout for a repeat of this weekend's situation; however, the models mostly show the front stalling over the southeastern states instead. That would mean we'd see unsettled days from Thursday through next weekend.