We remain blessed with a benign weather pattern as the challenging recovery from Helene's wrath continues. We currently have no threats to South Carolina from the tropics. There are storms to track, but they will remain distant. We have one area to watch closer to home, but the concern is mainly for Florida. The National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Seven-Day Tropical Weather Outlook shows what we're watching today.
There is a large area of disturbed weather to monitor over the Gulf of Mexico, and we will have to watch it for the next several days. We will likely see an area of low pressure form there during the early to middle part of next week, which may become a tropical cyclone. The weather pattern favors a track in the general direction of Florida over the middle to end of next week. It's most likely that this storm, tropical or something else, remains far enough to our south that we see no impacts. However, we'll have to watch it because some computer models show fringe effects close to our coast around midweek as the storm moves out to sea. Also, it will stir up the southwestern Atlantic next week, bringing rough surf and seas to our coastal areas.
This loop of visible satellite images shows the two tropical cyclones we're tracking today and an area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Hurricane Kirk is a bloated powerhouse of a storm, so let's be thankful it's centered about 2,000 miles away and won't get much closer. It's likely near its peak intensity today as a Category Four hurricane. The forecast track from NHC takes well east of Bermuda this weekend, then north of the Azores early next week. It will affect Europe with wind and rain later next week after becoming a powerful extratropical storm. While it will remain distant, it will send ocean swells toward the East Coast, so it will also play a role in causing potentially dangerous surf and boating conditions along our coast next week.
Leslie to the southwest of Cabo Verde is forecast by NHC to track toward the northwest and likely end up in the general area where Kirk is now by the middle of next week. Early signs are that it will continue to follow in Kirk's footsteps late next week and weekend, but we'll keep an eye on it.
Another tropical wave is emerging from Africa today, and another will next week; both may eventually become eastern Atlantic storms to track.
Remember that your storm recovery process isn't complete until your prep work for the next storm is complete. It's unlikely that we have another storm affect South Carolina for the next two weeks, but there are about seven weeks of the hurricane season left. If you need storm prep advice, SCEMD has what you're looking for at hurricane.sc.
With tropical troubles unlikely over the next week, we'll look in the other direction for weather systems for potential problems. Not much is coming from the north and west over the next week, either. A weak cold front over the Midwest will mostly fizzle out before reaching us on Saturday. A stray shower may pop up here and there in the afternoon, but no significant rain will fall. Any change behind this front will be slight.
A more significant cold front will move in Monday night into Tuesday. There won't be much rain with it, either; it will only cause stray showers again. However, we'll have a noticeably cooler air mass move in behind the front. Highs across the state will mainly be in the low to middle 80s through Monday, then drop back to the 70s on Wednesday. We likely see 50s for lows later next week and even some 40s in the Upstate. I don't know about y'all, but I look forward to some comfortable days!