As is usual for the early part of the hurricane season, we don't have much action across the Atlantic Basin, and that's how it will stay for the next week or so. There are only a couple of features worth telling you about.
A visible satellite loop of the Atlantic Basin shows little thunderstorm activity across the Atlantic tropics. A hazy area over the eastern tropical Atlantic is indicative of dust from the Sahara Desert intruding into the area.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
One of them is the disturbance that brought us some rain and thunderstorms earlier this week. It's currently centered over eastern North Carolina. It will move out to sea today and head toward Atlantic Canada this weekend. It will soon move over cool waters, so it has no chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.
The other is a tropical wave over the Atlantic along 40° west. It's hard to pick out on satellite imagery because it isn't generating any thunderstorm activity. Dry and dust-laden air covers most of the tropical Atlantic right now, so it's unlikely that this wave will perk up in the next few days. Conditions may become less hostile as it passes through the Caribbean later next week, so we'll keep an eye on it when it gets there.
Some long-range computer model guidance still indicates the potential for development over the western Caribbean Sea toward the middle of the month. Meteorologists are generally skeptical, but the weather pattern we'll be in makes it a possibility. We'd have to have a storm forming or about to form before we have any good idea about where it would go, so we'll cross that bridge if we come to it.
Early season quiet time in the tropics means extra prep time, so make sure you're ready for potential threats once we get to hurricane prime time starting in late August. Head over to hurricane.sc for hurricane prep tips.
A Stormy Weekend Ahead
We remain on track for multiple rounds of thunderstorms across South Carolina this weekend. The forecast has changed little since Thursday afternoon. The opening salvo will primarily affect the Upstate later today and tonight. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has the northwest part of the state in a level 1 of 5 risk area through tonight.
Any isolated thunderstorm that pops up later this afternoon can cause locally damaging wind. Additionally, there is a chance that thunderstorms from a more substantial blow-up to our west will reach South Carolina tonight; these storms may also cause damaging winds if they make it to the Upstate.
A cold front will move into the Southeast on Saturday to produce another round of thunderstorms. However, most of the day will feature sunshine along with summery heat and humidity; it will be one of the few truly hot days we have had so far this year (no complaints, I'm sure). The heat and humidity will fuel another round of thunderstorms later Saturday into Saturday night.
There is little change from Thursday, except that SPC's outlook now includes the entire state in the level 2 of 5 area rather than almost the entire state. The primary concern is damaging wind, which could be widespread if an organized squall line forms. There may also be isolated large hail. The tornado threat appears to be very low, but it won't be zero (it's a low-shear setup, but sometimes one storm's outflow meets another's or the sea breeze, generating spin).
On Sunday, it'll be "thank you, may I have another," with another round of severe storms probable. Our cold front will become stationary over the southeastern states, and we'll see an upper-level disturbance interact with it to cause afternoon and evening storms again. SPC's outlook for Sunday has most of the state in a level 2 of 5 risk area, with the rest of the state at level 1.
There remains some uncertainty for Sunday, mainly regarding the amount of leftover shower and thunderstorm activity from Saturday night that will persist into early Sunday. However, the model trend is for Sunday to be warmer and thus more unstable ahead of thunderstorm activity later Sunday into Sunday night. Once again, the primary risk will be for damaging wind (perhaps semi-widespread in the level 2 area) and a lower risk for large hail. More wind shear will be present on Sunday, perhaps enough for a low-end tornado concern as well.
It looks like we remain unsettled for the first part of next week. However, Monday is looking less active, with afternoon thunderstorms mostly confined to the Coastal Plain. Tuesday looks more active again, but the severe storm risk is uncertain. Thunderstorms could bubble up earlier in the day, resulting in less available instability (thunderstorm fuel), or it might be too cloudy for the atmosphere over us to get warm and unstable enough for severe storms.
Through the rest of next week, we remain unsettled with the stationary front still over us. Each day looks warm and muggy, with a scattering of mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day. The severe storm risk appears low from Wednesday through Friday, but it is not zero. We can expect more of the same next weekend.