The Atlantic tropics remain quiet today and are likely to stay that way for a while, at least through Independence Day. A few tropical waves are present: one over the western Caribbean Sea near 80° west, another east of the Lesser Antilles, slanted between 45° and 50° west, and the third over the eastern tropical Atlantic near 28° west.
This loop of visible satellite images shows the weather features of interest over the Atlantic Basin today.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
None of these waves shows any promise for development; strong westerly winds aloft are causing vertical shear over the entire Atlantic Main Development Region (the area between 10° north and 20° north), and sinking air is present over the Atlantic as well, thanks to the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
So, it's no surprise that no computer models indicate a significant chance for any developments in the deep tropics over the next two weeks. If we were to see a tropical cyclone form, it would come from spins developing along stationary fronts off the East Coast over the Gulf. The odds of this happening are low.
We're always happy to see tranquility in the Atlantic tropics, and we hope it stays that way. However, it's a long hurricane season, and we just got started. It's important to be ready for the risk we face from hurricanes, and if you need readiness advice, SCEMD has you covered at hurricane.sc.
SC Weather Highlights for the next week or so:
The big story for us, as well as our neighbors in this part of the country, will be the intense heat that we're about to see. A strong upper-level ridge (a northward buckling of the jet stream) will form over this part of the country over the weekend and early next week; it will suppress thunderstorms and promote above-average temperatures until it breaks down about a week later.
Translation: It's about to turn into Satan's back porch 'round these here parts.
Today we're under the influence of an upper-level disturbance that likely brings us widespread afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The severe storm risk is low but not zero.
Temperatures tick upward on Saturday with sparse coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 90s around the state.
Sunday looks even hotter, with 95-100° highs for most of the state, the Upstate looks slightly less hot; the heat index will peak at 105-110° across most of the state.
A weak cold front moves in Sunday night, becomes stationary, then fizzles out Monday into Monday night. That will generate a scattering of showers and thunderstorms. This results in a less-hot Monday, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s. Thunderstorm coverage will be lower on Tuesday; perhaps it's slightly hotter as a result.
After that, the misery begins in earnest; the upper ridge will suppress thunderstorms and promote intense heat from Wednesday through at least Independence Day. Here's the forecast highs for Thursday from the National Weather Service, which is as far out as their specific forecasts go:
Friday and Independence Day could be even hotter. The computer models show the hot weather pattern will break down after that, but disagree on when. Some say we'll cool down starting next Sunday, some keep us searing on the grill through around next Tuesday. Either way, we're all going to be well done by the time the upcoming heat wave ends.
