We don't have any tropical cyclones to track in the Atlantic today, but there are two areas to watch for development in the coming days. Both of them are over or near the Caribbean Sea.
NHC's 7-day Tropical Weather Outlook Graphic from this morning shows two areas of interest in and near the Caribbean Sea.
Both have been designated as an invest area by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The first area to watch is an area of disturbed weather over the northwestern Caribbean Sea designated as Invest Area AL95. NHC gives it a 50 percent chance to become a tropical cyclone through Saturday. It's drifting westward, so it likely will move over Central America soon. It must get its act together quickly to become a named storm in the Atlantic. Waters are simmering in this area and are warm to great depth; lots of hurricane fuel is available here. Also, upper-level winds are favorable, and vertical shear is light. So, I'm saying there's a chance. The next name on this year's list is Nadine if it gets its act together before reaching Central America. However, it's no threat to South Carolina. If it doesn't become a named storm in the Atlantic, there's a good chance it will in the Pacific.
The other area is a tropical wave we've been watching for over a week. It's Invest Area AL94, which was over Cabo Verde last Friday and has drifted to the area north of the Virgin Islands since then. A broad area of low pressure is present with the wave, and it's generating a good bit of thunderstorm activity. At a glance, it looks somewhat healthy, and the odds of it developing into a tropical cyclone seem better than the 10 percent chance that NHC gave it this morning. That said, it will have to sustain the thunderstorm activity and get its circulation better defined, which will still take some time. It will remain over warm waters through Saturday, and there isn't much vertical wind shear in this area.
This loop of visible satellite imagery shows weather features of interest across the Atlantic Basin Friday morning.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
AL94 will keep drifting west for about another 24 hours before it has to make a choice. One option is to turn northward and track along the stationary front resting over the area from the Florida Keys to Bermuda. If it becomes a tropical cyclone quickly and gains strength, this is more likely. If it remains weak and disorganized, it will keep drifting westward across Hispaniola and Cuba. It might have a chance to develop further if it can find its way into the northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico without getting torn apart by wind shear in this area.
There is another tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic over Cabo Verde today, but this area has become unfavorable for development. The wave will reach the Caribbean Sea or the area just north of the islands in a week or so. It might find more favorable conditions for development there.
Not helping features that want to become a tropical cyclone is that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (here are more details on the MJO if you're new here) is in an unfavorable state for Atlantic developments today. It's why the Atlantic has calmed down considerably since Milton hit Florida last week. Sinking air associated with the MJO will remain over the Atlantic for another 7-10 days, then we'll see more favorable conditions for tropical cyclones spread over the Atlantic Basin from west to east again at the end of this month. So, we might see another spurt of developments as we head into November.
It's relatively quiet in the tropics now but the hurricane season ain't over until it's over at the end of November. Stay prepared and visit hurricane.sc if you need prep advice.
Our weather looks very quiet for the next week, which is good in some ways and bad in others. A high-pressure area of polar origin has been over the eastern states for a couple of days now and it has brought us the chilliest air we have seen since the spring. Much of South Carolina dipped into the 30s this morning (37° at my place this morning; 36° at Columbia Metro Airport, its first morning in the 30s since April 8 and the coldest morning since it was 33° on February 26).
This high-pressure area is centered near Pittsburgh this morning and will drift slowly eastward in the coming days, but it will remain the dominant weather feature for us until at least the middle of next week. That means we will remain dry, with mainly sunny days and clear nights for a while. A warming trend will mean temperatures step up each day. The weekend looks beautiful with highs in the middle-to-upper 70s, though late nights and mornings will be chilly with lows in the 40s over most of the state and 50s along the coast.
The warming trend continues next week, with highs zooming up to the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. That's about 10 degrees above average. Nights remain cool to comfortable, with lows in the upper 40s to 50s.
All this sounds nice for those who need to work or want to play outside. However, we're at the point where we need some rain again. We're back in Famine Mode again with rainfall, and prospects for rain look poor for a while. Our next cold front coming late next week won't have much moisture to work with and may not produce any rain here in the Palmetto State. Next weekend and at least the first part of the following week are looking dry, too. Don't be surprised if you hear about drought conditions returning over the next two weeks, especially over our Coastal Plain, where the last 60 days have been the driest.
This plot of percent-of-normal rainfall over the last 60 days illustrates how dry it's been over the Lowcountry, eastern Midlands and Grand Strand. The deluge from Helene still stands out over the Upstate, CSRA and especially western North Carolina.
Image Source: WeatherBELL