While Beryl remains a dangerous hurricane crossing the northern Yucatan Peninsula this morning, it's the only tropical cyclone in the Atlantic Basin today. It's headed toward South Texas and Tamaulipas, Mexico; the only question is how intense it will be at landfall. It will bring high wind, surge, flooding downpours, and tornadoes to that area starting on Sunday night. The latest forecast track takes Beryl into South Texas, making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, though it could be stronger than forecast at landfall.
This loop of infrared satellite images highlights Hurricane Beryl with its forecast track and the two tropical waves over the Atlantic Basin today.
Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Beryl won't impact South Carolina as a tropical cyclone, but there is a chance that the storm's remnants wander this way and affect us later next week. We could use the rain, so this scenario would be a net positive for us.
Across the rest of the Atlantic Basin, we have only two other tropical waves to track. One is Invest Area AL96, a tropical wave not far east of Beryl in the Caribbean Sea along 75° west. We've been watching this feature for days; it once looked like it would become another hurricane, but the odds of development have dwindled. It's been too close to Beryl, and tracking across somewhat cooler waters left behind by Beryl and winds aloft have been less favorable. The wave likely continues to follow in Beryl's footsteps, so it's unlikely to develop further. The good news is that the areas to be hit by Beryl won't see back-to-back tropical cyclones, but there is bad news that a second wave of tropical downpours will hit those areas a couple of days behind Beryl.
The other tropical wave is way out over the tropical Atlantic along 40° west, and there isn't much shower and thunderstorm activity with it. No development will occur in the short term from this wave, and no computer models indicate that a tropical cyclone will form as it pushes westward into and through the Caribbean Sea and eventually into Central America.
The same fate will likely befall another tropical wave crossing West Africa that will emerge over the Atlantic this weekend. The reason for this is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (here's a primer on the MJO if you're new here), which was in a favorable state to help get Beryl going a week ago but now is entering a state that brings sinking air to the tropics over the Western Hemisphere. Sinking air suppresses thunderstorms, making it difficult for tropical waves to evolve into tropical cyclones. So, the Atlantic Basin should remain quiet for a few weeks once Beryl is out of the picture.
99 out of 100 South Carolinians (at least one lunatic gets picked to answer every survey) agree that quiet spells in the tropics are better than active periods. 100 out of 100 emergency managers agree that those quiet spells are the best time to ensure you're ready for a hurricane that could affect us during the active stretches (one of those may begin by the end of this month). So, don't delay, prepare today! If you need hurricane prep tips, hurricane.sc is just the website you need.
Another heat wave has risen upon us from the depths of Hades. This afternoon should feature the worst of the current hot spell, with temperatures peaking in the three-digit range along the I-20 Corridor. Middle to upper 90s will be common elsewhere in our state. Only a few fortunate Upstaters and coastal residents will enjoy a cooling afternoon thunderstorm. High humidity will send the heat index will rise into the danger zone this afternoon, so be cautious if you must work outdoors.
We can be thankful for a change to the weather pattern that will begin this weekend. A strong upper-level ridge (Wikipedia explains meteorological ridges well enough) has been overhead lately, promoting dry weather with increasing heat. The ridge will weaken over the next few days, allowing another "not as hot front" to move in and stall, leading to less heat and good chances for afternoon thunderstorms.
That's great! We've had more than our fair share of intense heat, and we badly need the rain to help with our drought situation across the state. Unfortunately, we have another potential "too much, too fast" situation with the rain this weekend, particularly on Sunday. The primary area of concern will be along the I-77 Corridor and into the Lowcountry where flash flooding could result from prolonged thunderstorm downpours despite the drought conditions in these areas. So, be ready to take action if you're in a flood-prone spot this weekend.
Next week looks pretty routine. The front will fizzle out, and the upper ridge will strengthen slightly, but the ridge won't be overpowering like it is today. So, we'll see a typical scattering of afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day and it won't be as hot as it is now. Temperatures will run close to average for July during the first part of the week, so expect typical simmering heat. Later in the week, temperatures will rise again, but I don't think it will get as hot as we're seeing right now, and we'll continue to see a pop-up afternoon thunderstorm here and there. If the remains of Beryl end up tracking this way, it would result in less heat and downpours in the area instead late next week.
I hope y'all had a great Independence Day and that your weekend will be restful.
