With Ernesto and Imelda having run their course, the Atlantic Basin is back to a quiet situation with no tropical cyclones to track. There are a few features to watch, but we're likely to see the Atlantic remain quiet for 5-7 days.
This loop of visible satellite images shows the features of interest across the Atlantic Basin, including three tropical waves between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. The extratropical storm that was once Hurricane Imelda is located at the top center.
On the weather satellite loop above, you can see Imelda is still an intense storm to the northeast of Bermuda, but it's no longer a tropical entity. Its next stop will be the British Isles in several days.
In the deep tropics, we are tracking three tropical waves. One is roughly along 53° west longitude, just east of the Lesser Antilles. Sinking air over that part of the Atlantic is suppressing thunderstorms with it, and its slow westward progression will take it into an area with strong westerly winds aloft, causing vertical shear. So, it's unlikely to develop before it gets pulled northward into the cold front that trails the former Hurricane Imelda.
The second wave is just a bit to the east of the first one, near 45° west. There is little thunderstorm activity associated with it, and it probably will join with the wave to the west in getting pulled northward by a cold front.
The third tropical wave is just emerging from Africa today. There is a turning motion associated with the wave, along with considerable thunderstorm activity. However, it's moving into a dry environment, which will stunt its growth. Eventually, it's likely to find increasingly favorable conditions over the middle of the tropical Atlantic. In fact, we have unusually good computer model agreement that it will develop into a tropical cyclone in 4-6 days as it approaches the Windward and Leeward Islands. There is also reasonable agreement among the models that it will turn north from there and remain far from the East Coast. The National Hurricane Center's outlook for the next seven days gives this area a 40 percent chance of developing, but the odds of development are higher if you add a few days. The next name on this year's list is Jerry if this feature behaves the way we expect.
Outside the deep tropics, we'll also need to monitor a stationary front over the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf for potential surprises through next week; however, development in this area is unlikely. If you pull out your magnifying glass, you'll see a small swirl on the satellite loop above near Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, which the NHC outlook covers with a 10 percent chance of development. In other words, there's a 90 percent chance it won't develop. However, it could bring an influx of moisture to the southeastern states early next week.
The tropics are quiet for now, but our long-range indicators are that the possible Jerry next week may be just the start of another flurry of activity. Therefore, remain prepared for the threats we may face in the coming weeks. As always, if you need storm prep advice, you'll find it at hurricane.sc.
With the tropics tranquil, our short-term weather will be governed by an area of high pressure to our north, currently centered near Philadelphia. This Canadian-origin air mass is responsible for our lovely weather today, which will continue through the weekend over most of our state. The exception will be our coastal areas, especially in the Lowcountry, because easterly winds around the high will send showers into our coast starting tonight. Showers remain near the immediate coast Saturday but will penetrate further inland on Sunday. Temperatures will be close to average for early October, with highs mainly in the upper 70s and low 80s.
Moisture will increase early next week, with spotty showers becoming more widespread across South Carolina from Monday into Tuesday. The coverage of the shower activity will depend on the track of the little disturbance over the Bahamas. We'll see more widespread showers if it moves this way, but most computer models take this feature into Georgia and Alabama after it crosses Florida. Even without showers, cloud cover will hold temperatures down, with highs mainly in the 75-80 range both days. However, most of the Pee Dee should be sunny enough to reach the low 80s.
Wednesday is likely to be a sunnier and warmer day with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s across South Carolina, but there may still be a shower here and there. A cold front will approach that day, but it likely won't arrive until Wednesday night or Thursday. The front will bring us more showers at the end of next week, and some areas could get a thunderstorm. Some computer models say we'll dry out for next weekend, while others keep it wet with the front turning stationary over us. Pleasant weekend weather would be nice, but we need some rain. Most of the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and some areas are in a drought.
Unfortunately, we only expect significant rain over the Lowcountry over the next five days. The end of next week and next weekend likely will bring near-normal to above-normal rain to the entire state, but we're likely to experience dry conditions for most of the following week. It's unlikely that we will see enough rain to bring significant drought relief outside the coastal areas over the next couple of weeks, and dry conditions may worsen across the Upstate.