The title might make it sound like this is about the aftermath of a bad batch of leftover Frogmore Stew, but I'm talking about a couple of rounds of thunderstorms that will mainly affect our coastal areas through this evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has much of the state outlined with a severe storm risk for today and tonight.
SPC's Severe Weather Outlook graphic highlights the southern tip of the state and the area from I-77 to the coast as having the greatest risk for severe storms today.
The first round comes from a disturbance that is mostly passing by to our south. It brought damaging storms and tornadoes to southern Georgia and Florida, but South Carolina mostly will see a soaking rain from this event. Damaging storms likely remain confined to our coastal waters and areas to our south.
The weather radar composite loop from this morning shows the worst of the thunderstorms passing south of South Carolina.
Source: University of Wisconsin - Madison
Meanwhile, a cold front is entering South Carolina from the north. Once this morning's showers and thunderstorms move out to sea, the sun will pop out and heat us into the 80s. That will make the atmosphere unstable enough for the cold front to cause more thunderstorms as it moves through this afternoon and evening. The primary concern is going to be for locally damaging wind and hail. The setup isn't great for tornadoes, but I can't rule out one or two. The worst of this activity will affect the Pee Dee and vicinity and is the reason for SPC's level 2 risk area along and east of I-77.
After the front moves through this evening, a cooler and less humid air mass will settle in. Over the weekend, a weak area of high pressure will pass through and keep our weather pleasant. Wonderful, actually, with mainly sunny skies and highs only in the 70s to around 80 on Saturday, then the low 80s on Sunday. Enjoy it with Mom because we probably won't have many more truly superb days before summertime heat and humidity take over for months.
Monday should also feature pleasant weather, but clouds will increase ahead of our next storm system. Rain and thunderstorms from that may arrive as early as Monday night. Tuesday is likely to be stormy, and severe storms may be a concern. Wednesday looks less active; it may be warm and rain-free, but I can't rule out pop-up afternoon storms. Then another storm system will move in by Thursday; it may remain unsettled through next Friday. We likely see thunderstorms during this time, and some could be severe.
The one caveat emptor with the forecast is that the timing of storm systems this time of year is notoriously difficult, so between that and the severe storm threats, don't be surprised if you hear from me again before next Friday with an update.
