Greetings from New Orleans! Yep, it's was National Hurricane Conference time again this week, so I've been on the road to attend along with a handful of others in the Palmetto State's government to learn ways to enhance our state's disaster preparedness and share our knowledge with others. We all learned a lot and look forward to applying what we learned back home.
Jason Romlein and Erica Magowan of SCEMD joined me in front of the National Hurricane Conference's welcome sign for a photo on Thursday afternoon.
I'm thankful that the weather is quiet across the Southeast since this conference is a long road trip for me (thus your Friday edition of this gets issued on Thursday night). It will be mainly sunny, warm, and dry in Southeast Louisiana, South Carolina, and all points in between Friday. Highs in South Carolina will mostly be in the 80s, with some 70s near the coast and higher spots of the Upstate.
Over the weekend, an upper-level ridge (a feature that looks like a camel hump on an upper-level chart as the flow aloft meanders poleward) will take charge of our weather. Upper ridges overhead typically mean warm and rain-free weather; this weekend will be no exception. Look for sunshine on both Saturday and Sunday with warmth typical of June. Most of us will see highs in the 85-90° range, with only the beaches and highest spots in the northwest staying below 80°.
We're in for more near-summery weather on Monday (more sunshine and highs well into the 80s, 90° in the hotter spots) before things change starting Tuesday. The upper-level ridge will decay, allowing a front to limp into the Southeast and become stationary. The result will be more clouds, less heat, and a chance for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm, primarily in the warmth of the afternoon. Rain chances affect all but the Lowcountry on Tuesday then covers the state on Wednesday. Highs will mainly be in the lower to middle 80s those days.
An upper-level chart (for the 500-millibar level) featuring an upper level ridge covering the Gulf of Mexico, most of the Southeastern U. S., and far western Atlantic Ocean.
Image Source: WeatherModels.com
Confidence in the forecast drops as we approach the end of next week. We know that the front will retreat northward during this time as another upper-level ridge develops over this part of the world. However, the process may take a while. We will likely return to summery warmth by next Saturday, but we will likely see more showers and thunderstorms around Thursday and possibly on Friday as well. We'll likely see highs mainly in the low to middle 80s again on Thursday and Friday before it heats up again next weekend.
The lack of rain in recent days is excellent if you like to work or play outdoors, and we're all for it here at SCDNR, being that we're partial to being outdoors. However, it worsens our drought situation. Roughly half the state is in a drought, with a small part of the coast experiencing severe drought conditions. Dry conditions through Monday will undoubtedly make things worse. I'd like to tell y'all the rain chances Tuesday through Thursday, and maybe Friday, will put a nice dent in the drought, but it probably will not. The front will generate downpours, but they will be localized, and I doubt they will be widespread enough to relieve our drought significantly.
Long-range outlooks indicate that mostly normal to below-normal rainfall is likely to continue through at least the first week of May, so let's be mindful of our water usage and be ready to deal with conditions favoring the spread of wildfires until the weather pattern changes to a wetter one.