I'm guessing you're as thankful as I am that our weather has been relatively quiet this week (I moved on Thursday, so it was a big help to me), and things are looking relatively quiet for us over the next week. We have a couple of exceptions, though. First, let's look at the tropics.
Hurricane Ernesto will pass well to our east, tracking near Bermuda Saturday and bringing them hurricane conditions. At least it's not a major hurricane, and Bermuda has a lot of practice dealing with storms like this one. There will be damage and a recovery phase, but they'll get through it.
NHC's 8 a.m. EDT Friday advisory graphic shows the forecast for Ernesto to pass near Bermuda and stay well east of South Carolina.
While Ernesto isn't bringing us any wind, rain, storm surge, or tornadoes, there will be coastal concerns as the hurricane sends ocean swells into our coast. They arrived early this morning and will grow as we go into the weekend. This will result in hazardous surf for beachgoers and rough seas for marine interests through at least Monday, and there may be a small craft advisory out for our coastal waters.
Ernesto is the only named storm to watch, but we're tracking three tropical waves crossing the Atlantic Basin. One is over the eastern Caribbean Sea, and two are over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. None of them look great right now. The one over the Caribbean Sea isn't producing much thunderstorm activity and is about to get tangled up with northerly winds aloft generated by Ernesto's outflow, causing high vertical shear. The wave east of the Lesser Antilles is weak, surrounded by dry air, and barely generating any thunderstorms. One over toward Cabo Verde is somewhat more impressive but is also stuck in a dry air mass. This easternmost wave is one we might have to watch closer once it gets to around 50° west, but that will be next week.
So, we don't have any threats right now, and that's how we like it. Nonetheless, it's important to have your storm preparations in place. If you need storm prep advice, you always have advice at hurricane.sc.
The dry spell we have had the last few days is precisely what the doctor ordered after Debby brought us a flood to end our drought. However, we're about to see more action in the form of another 'not as hot' front on the way.
Sunrise over this part of the world allows visible satellite imagery to reveal Hurricane Ernesto south of Bermuda and a band of clouds over the Ohio Valley associated with a cold front moving toward South Carolina.
The front will trigger thunderstorms over South Carolina in the coming days. This evening, weakening thunderstorms from the approaching front may reach the Upstate before falling apart. The front will trigger storms on a more widespread basis on Saturday afternoon and evening. As fronts tend to do this time of year on the uncommon occasion that they get this far south, it will slow to a crawl, so we'll get another round of showers and thunderstorms from it on Sunday. Temperatures will be near typical midsummer levels this weekend, with highs mainly in the lower 90s and maybe the middle 90s in the usual I-20 hot zone.
Storms that pop up over us this weekend can be locally severe. The bottom part of the atmosphere is relatively dry. When thunderstorms form in this environment, rain-laden thunderstorm downdrafts tend to accelerate downward as evaporation cools the downward-moving air. So, locally damaging winds will be a concern on Saturday and Sunday. There is a chance that cooler and less humid air filtering into the Palmetto State behind the front reaches the Upstate Sunday, and that area remains rain-free.
The front may remain stuck over our coastal areas on Monday, especially the Lowcountry, but cooler and less humid air will filter in over the rest of the state. That will bring us another stretch of nice weather ... really nice, actually. That will be the first good shot of not-too-hot air with low humidity that we've seen since early June. Highs will only be in the 80s on Tuesday through Thursday. Moisture may return at the end of next week, with temperatures starting to creep upward again.