Some of you are wondering if I was snoozing on some Caribbean beach back on Friday, and that's why your regular edition didn't arrive in your mailbox. I was working but mashed the wrong button and sent it to the wrong mailing list. Some of you also subscribe to that list and got it, but most did not.
Sorry about that. It's as well because the forecast has changed a bit since Friday.
Now that the clouds and fog have mostly burned away, the rest of today looks sunny and pleasant, and most of the state will reach the 70s, with the immediate coast and mountains excluded. A high-pressure area remains dominant in our weather through Tuesday, so tonight will be tranquil. Tuesday looks mainly sunny and warm with highs in the 70s again, pushing 80 across the Midlands, Central Savannah River Area, and Lowcountry.
After that, the forecast looks different. Back on Friday, it looked like we'd be warm all this week with highs in the 70s and even some 80s each day. Now, it looks like a cold front will move in from the north on Tuesday night and become stationary over us on Wednesday, causing the dreaded cold air 'wedge' to develop across the Carolinas.
This makes for a tricky forecast for Wednesday. Areas south of the stationary front will remain in the springlike regime, while areas north will be stuck in a gray, misty, and chilly situation. The output from one computer model illustrates the potential range of temperatures across the state (don't mistake this as gospel):
The Wednesday high temperature forecast from today's 12Z NAM model run shows a large range of temperatures across South Carolina, from mid-40s north to 70 south.
Image source: WeatherBELL
From model to model, the position of the front varies slightly, with some a bit further south and some slightly further north. You'll have to check the forecast for your town from your favorite outlet on Wednesday morning to decide whether short sleeves or long sleeves and a jacket will be appropriate attire for the day.
This front will retreat northward Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with some light rain falling mainly over areas north of I-20. The sun should pop out in the afternoon over most of the state, with warmth surging northward again. Highs on Thursday will range from near 60 in the Upstate to around 80 in the inland Lowcountry.
By Friday, another cold front pushes in from the north and becomes stationary. Like with Wednesday, details like how soon the front are uncertain about how soon the front arrives and where it stalls are uncertain. A slower, later-arriving front that stalls further north would allow the whole state to get into the 70s again and even low 80s along the interior Coastal Plain. A faster, sooner-arriving front or one that stalls further south would at least trap the Upstate in another gray and dreary 'wedge' with temperatures hanging out in the 50s and 60s. The warmer idea looks better now, but there are no promises yet.
The cycle repeats this weekend; the front retreats Saturday as a warm front, and then Sunday looks warm with another cold front approaching. If things came together just right, Sunday could feel like late April, with temperatures shooting up to the 80s over much of the state.
Next week's weather looks entertaining, to say the least. South Carolina will be in the battle zone between winter to the north and the April-like airmass to the south. You may not have to travel far north to see a winter storm, while severe thunderstorms may threaten areas in the warm air. The silver lining in this situation is that some rain is likely, and we need it.
The U. S. Drought Monitor shows that about a fourth of the state is in a drought.
Most places not currently in a drought will be in one soon if we don't see some good rains soon, so let's welcome a wet week with open arms. Hopefully, rain won't come with anything hazardous, but there is a risk. More on that Friday, assuming I can check off the correct boxes.