While we will see some temperature fluctuations, the weather pattern over the next week looks generally benign. Today, we begin with a cold front approaching from the northwest and another subtropical jet feature spreading a lot of high clouds over South Carolina.
This loop of visible satellite imagery from this morning shows high clouds associated with a subtropical jet streaming over the Southeast, and a mass of clouds associated with a storm tracking along a cold front moving through the Midwest and central Plains states.
Image source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Despite all the clouds around, the cold front headed our way won't have much moisture to work with, so we're just looking at clouds and stray showers tonight and early Saturday as the front crosses South Carolina. Ahead of it, we're looking good for this afternoon and evening as it remains mild to warm.
Temperatures will take a step down for Saturday, with highs ranging from the 50s in the Upstate to the middle 60s in the Lowcountry. The front will push south and east of us during the afternoon, but the subtropical jet will keep a lot of clouds overhead. Much of the state will brighten up in the afternoon, though.
The pesky subtropical jet will keep a lot of high clouds over most of the state Saturday night through Sunday as well. The sun will occasionally pop out over the Upstate, but the rest of the state will see varying shades of gray on Sunday. Chilly air will be in place by Sunday, and our highs will only reach the lower to middle 50s.
Monday brings the Coastal Plain more clouds as a storm moves along the cold front to our south. It may be a close call for rain in the Lowcountry, but all our computer model guidance keeps South Carolina dry. Monday won't be as chilly, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
On Tuesday, a weak upper-level disturbance will move through. This brings us clouds to limit sunshine again, but moisture with this feature will be limited, and I think we get nothing more than stray showers. A warming trend will begin with highs in the low to middle 60s.
Wednesday and Thursday look nice with sunshine. The warming trend will continue, and much of the state will reach the 70s on Thursday.
Our next good chance for rain will come with a cold front that will move through at the end of next week. The timing on it is in question, however. Friday looks most likely, but it could instead be a Thursday night event. Also in question is how much rain we will get, but early signs are that it won't be much. Then, another cool period will follow next weekend.
If you're still wondering about that colder weather pattern I was talking about a couple of weeks ago, well, this was supposed to be it. I was stressing out a couple of weeks ago over most of our computer guidance showing a favorable setup for cold air to push into the eastern part of the country. That didn't materialize. All the harsh cold air has become bottled up over the polar regions, especially Siberia (where it's as cold as -63°F today), with only a little of it leaking into eastern Canada and New England.
How utterly disappointing for snow lovers! (Don't put me in that camp. I got enough of that stuff living in Pennsylvania for 20 years, though I don't mind seeing one good snowstorm each winter.) Currently, there is no sign of any cold wave significant enough to cause any snow or ice in South Carolina for the rest of February and the start of March. I always say that once March begins, it becomes difficult for the atmosphere to generate a winter storm in South Carolina because of the steadily strengthening sun.
So, things aren't looking good right now, but sometimes we get surprises in March. Long-range guidance hints at a colder pattern setting up over this part of the country during the second week of March. That will probably be too late for us to get anything other than freezing temperatures later than we want, but stranger things have happened.
Hopefully, we can do something for the snow lovers in March. The longest of the long-range predictions bring La Niña conditions back to the East Pacific for next winter, which would promote warmer and dry conditions in South Carolina if correct.