Unfortunately, it will come on a weekend, but an unsettled setup will bring us rain over the next few days. At least we remain mainly dry through Saturday. The one concern we have is elevated wildfire risk through Saturday. Today, it's bone-dry with a gentle breeze. Moisture will increase on Saturday, but winds will increase, too. So, be careful with anything that can start a fire.
We begin today with a departing area of high pressure over the Southeast, a weaker storm over the nation's midsection, and a more potent storm over the Southwest. The storm over the middle of the country will pass north of us through Saturday and pull a cold front through South Carolina during the afternoon and evening. While I can't rule out a shower with this front, most places will remain dry. Saturday will undoubtedly be the nicer of the two days this weekend, with highs in the 70s, perhaps even touching 80 in the usual warm spots. Chilly air will follow the front Saturday night.
This Weather Prediction Center forecast map valid at 7 p.m. Friday evening shows a storm and cold front over the Midwest and Plains, and a strong storm over the Southwest.
The front will become stationary just south of us or over the Lowcountry Saturday night, and the storm over the Southwest today will crawl along it through Monday. That means we'll see an extended wet period. The usual questions about the exact storm track, storm intensity as it moves through, and available moisture are in place, but it's a rain event and not a potential winter storm this time despite the ideal storm track. Sorry, snow lovers, it won't be cold enough this time. However, Sunday will be chilly, with highs mainly in the 50s and perhaps some 60s in the Lowcountry. These highs may occur early Sunday, with some areas falling below 50 through the day.
Monday looks mainly wet, with the potential for a soaking over much of the state. A more southerly storm track would allow for the Upstate to remain dry. If so, it's a decent day there despite being mainly cloudy. Confidence is good for all-day rain over the rest of the state. Clouds and rain will hold temperatures down to the 50s again for most of the state. Highs in the Upstate will depend on whether the rain stays south. 60s are possible in the Upstate if it's mainly dry and it brightens up in the afternoon.
This Weather Prediction Center forecast weather map for Monday morning shows a storm near our coast causing rain over most of South Carolina.
The storm will move out to sea Monday night, and the rain will likely end by daybreak on Tuesday. We have the potential for a 1-3 inch rain event along our coast (generally from north to south), through Monday night which would be just what the doctor ordered for that area. Some models show a more widespread soaking up to the I-20 Corridor, while others show less rain and only a little along and north of I-20.
This plot of forecast rainfall through Wednesday morning from the Weather Prediction Center indicates the potential for a soaking over the Lowcountry and
most of the state seeing at least a half inch of rain.
Image Source: WeatherBELL
Tuesday and Wednesday look dry and warm with sunshine (we might have lingering clouds to start Tuesday). Highs will reach the 70s on both days, and some areas may reach 80 on Wednesday. We'll have another chance for rain on Thursday or Thursday night, but this likely will be a minor event. Odds favor warm and dry weather next Friday. Next weekend is in question; it will depend on how fast a strong cold front crossing the nation during this time moves. When that front finally reaches us, we'll probably see thunderstorms with it, maybe even heavy and gusty storms.
Here's why we need the rain: about two-thirds of South Carolina is in a drought, and the rest of the state is abnormally dry. The rain on the way this weekend will definitely help matters, but it won't be a cure. Hopefully, we'll score more substantial rain with the following storm systems later next week and next weekend.
The latest U. S. Drought Monitor indicates abnormally dry or drought conditions across the Palmetto State