We're heading into a stretch of warm and unsettled weather across South Carolina. An area of high pressure is centered just off our coast, and the high will slowly drift away to the east in the coming days. However, it will remain strong enough to deflect the storm track to our north through Saturday and keep a cold front over the Midwest and Plains today from reaching us until Sunday.
However, we won't see much sunshine. A strong upper-level trough out west is helping to create a plume of moisture originating from the Pacific that is shooting across the southern tier of states. It makes for a fascinating view of weather satellite imagery.
Sunrise over North and Central America allows this loop of visible satellite images to reveal a band of clouds stretching across the East Pacific, Mexico, and the southern states associated with a subtropical jet.
We call these features subtropical jets, and they can provide moisture to storms moving through South Carolina. A collection of three storms is present over the western part of the country; they will be moving east, and they will have plenty of moisture to work with as they move through the eastern states.
However, the first storm will be weak and mostly miss us to the north on Saturday. There can be a couple of showers north of I-85 in the Upstate, but no significant rain. The rest of the state looks mostly cloudy but warm, with highs in the 60s and lower 70s.
The second storm also will pass by north of us, but closer. Also, the cold front to our northwest will invade after this storm moves out to sea. So, Sunday looks wet across the Upstate, and the rest of the state sees some rain during the afternoon and into the night as the front moves in and becomes stationary. There might be an embedded thunderstorm here and there, but I don't think there is any severe storm risk for Sunday and Sunday night. Once again, highs on Sunday reach the 60s and 70s despite a gray sky.
The third storm will also pass to our north on Monday, but it will be the strongest of the three. The stationary front will retreat northward during the day as the storm approaches, and the storm will drag another cold front through from west to east during the afternoon and evening. So, Monday will feature rain, thunderstorms, and a gusty breeze. The storms could be severe since it will remain warm with highs in the 60s and 70s again.
The Storm Prediction Center's Severe Weather Outlook for Monday with South Carolina highlighted, showing the Lowcountry and vicinity at risk for severe thunderstorms.
The severe storm risks for Monday will include locally damaging wind and isolated tornadoes. We're a few days out, and the forecast could change; perhaps more of the state will be affected, maybe even the entire state. I'll send an update on Sunday afternoon or evening if there are any big changes.
We should see a soaking Sunday through Monday, with the storm's total rainfall generally 1-3 inches statewide. The risk of flash flooding will be low due to the recent dry spell. Our rivers are mostly below flood stage (the Santee and lower Savannah being exceptions), but the rain could be enough to cause minor river flooding next week.
We'll be turning cooler behind the storm on Tuesday despite the return of sunshine. It's the beginning of the colder weather pattern I've been talking about recently. However, it doesn't look terribly cold next week, with temperatures only slightly below average for mid-February. We likely remain dry for the rest of next week.
The next chance for rain comes next weekend and it might be another soaking. Some recent computer model runs have shown it cold enough for a winter storm next weekend, but the models are inconsistent with each other and run-to-run, so there's no need to get excited and cause a rally in shares of bread and milk producers. The weather pattern we're heading into for a few weeks starting Tuesday will allow for a winter storm this far south, so we'll have to remain vigilant for the rest of this month and early March.