We remain on track for potentially severe thunderstorms to hit South Carolina tonight through midday Wednesday. The only significant change to the forecast is for timing, which has shifted a few hours earlier. The Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook graphics for today and tonight, and Wednesday through Wednesday night, outline the area of concern for this event. All of South Carolina will be at risk at some point.
SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook graphic, covering the rest of today and tonight (top), and their Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook graphic (bottom) covering Wednesday and Wednesday night with South Carolina highlighted. Each day's graphic covers the period from 8 a.m. EDT of that day to 8 a.m. on the following day.
Our latest guidance hints that the cold front triggering the storms will move a little faster than thought yesterday, resulting in an arrival time over the western part of the state in the midnight to 1 a.m. time frame, then exiting the state to the east around midday Wednesday.
This loop of simulated radar from the 1200 UTC Tuesday run of the HRRR model gives a general idea of the timing of locally severe storms moving across South Carolina tonight through Wednesday. The loop begins at 10:00 p.m. EDT tonight and ends at 2:00 p.m. EDT Wednesday. Keep in mind that this will not be an exact depiction of weather radar.
Source: WeatherBELL
The hazards remain the same; while the primary concern is for locally damaging wind and hail, there can also be isolated tornadoes. The tornado risk looks greatest over the Upstate and vicinity late tonight.
While the storms will bring downpours with them, the flooding risk is minimal because the rain won't be long-lasting. Much of the state has seen relatively dry conditions over the last month, anyway. Rainfall over most of the state will be 0.25-0.50 inches tonight through Wednesday, with locally higher amounts.
I said it yesterday, and I'll say it again today: preparation saves lives and lowers the risk to property when severe storms and tornadoes threaten. Take some time to review or establish a tornado action plan this evening if you haven't already so that you have decided on your best shelter location before storms arrive and warnings go into effect. You might not have time to do that once your battle with a storm begins. You may only have time to duck into your safest spot. As always, you will find severe storm and tornado safety information on the SCEMD and Ready.gov websites.
You may have noticed that you don't have to go far to our west and northwest to reach a level 3 of 5 risk area that stretches from Ohio to Alabama and Georgia. (There's even a level 4 area in Ohio and Kentucky ... yikes!) If you're traveling that way through this evening, be alert for the risk of hazardous weather, including tornadoes, keep track of which county you're in, and have your phone set to alert you for warnings for your current location. There's no shame in taking a break from your drive to let the storms pass.
Behind the storms, we will have blustery days across South Carolina for the rest of Wednesday and again on Thursday. The winds won't be strong enough to cause significant damage as peak gusts only reach the 35-40 mph range on both days. However, this is enough to blow around loose items in your yard, so get that stuff stowed this evening before the storms hit and keep them secure until the winds settle down on Friday. Also, motorists should be ready for annoying crosswinds on both days.
Don't get me started on how frustrating winds over 30 mph can be for pickleball players, but that will be my life on Thursday evening.
