We'll have thunderstorms, a few potentially severe, on the prowl around South Carolina over the next few days. However, no major outbreaks of damaging storms are in the forecast.
The cold front that moved in over the weekend rests just northeast of the Savannah River Basin. This afternoon and evening, thunderstorms will focus on the front as an upper-level disturbance moves roughly parallel to it. The stronger storms will cause locally damaging wind and hail, with the highest risk over parts of the Upstate and Central Savannah River Area.
The Storm Prediction Center has most of the state in some level of severe storm risk, peaking at level 2 of 5 for the area along and southwest of I-26 and north of I-20.
Thankfully, the tornado risk is near zero through tonight, but getting caught in a thunderstorm causing high wind and large hail is not fun. Move indoors as storms approach this afternoon and evening, and check weather radar before traveling to evaluate if delaying your trip by an hour or so would help you avoid a dangerous storm on the way.
The front will shift a bit northward on Tuesday, producing some isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Once again, the storms might cause locally damaging wind and hail, but there will be a lower risk.
Roughly the northern half of our state can see a thunderstorm with locally damaging wind and hail. If you travel west, the threat level increases, and there will also be a tornado threat for the Tennessee, middle Mississippi and lower Ohio River Valleys.
On Wednesday, a cold front will move through, which may trigger more locally damaging storms. However, it's increasingly looking like a lower-end event. Most of our computer model guidance shows the front moving through most of the state before midday, with only the Coastal Plain seeing a severe storm risk.
Risks will include locally damaging wind and hail, and possibly an isolated tornado. If the timing plays out as the models show today, then our storms will move out to sea by midafternoon.
We remain warm to hot and humid, with highs mostly in the upper 80s and lower 90s through Wednesday. Then Thursday and Friday look nice, cooler, and less humid, with highs only in the middle 70s to lower 80s. We'll see another chance for rain and storms over the weekend, but the exact timing is uncertain.