We'll be trending out of the deep freeze in the coming days, and we even have some warmer-than-average days coming up next week.
An upper-level trough is helping to push a barely discernable cold front into the Southeast today. It has very little moisture; we will see patchy clouds over South Carolina this afternoon and evening. We'll drop to the teens and 20s again tonight. Watch for icy patches on the roads again if you'll be out where the snow and ice linger tonight or early Saturday.
Saturday looks chilly and tranquil with high-pressure centered overhead. Most places will see highs of 45-50 with bright sunshine. Few places with snow still on the ground today will have any left late Saturday. Saturday night will be less cold, with lows in the lower to middle 20s early Sunday.
A disturbance now over the Pacific southwest of California will approach us on Sunday. It will be a decent January day overall, with highs reaching the lower to middle 50s (still below average, but not by much) and clouds increasing during the afternoon. Some rain is likely as that feature moves through, starting toward daybreak on Monday.
Infrared satellite imagery shows clouds over the Southeast with a weak disturbance moving through, some clouds over and near California and Baja California with the next disturbance to impact South Carolina, and clouds over the West and nation's midsection from a storm that will pass by to our north.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
We will have a close call early Monday for potential light snow or ice along the North Carolina line. Temperatures will be close to freezing there as precipitation arrives. Timing of the onset will be important, as will storm track and available moisture. It may not begin until after it's above freezing, precipitation may sidestep the area, or there may not be enough moisture associated with the feature for much to fall. I'll send out an update on Sunday if it looks like there will be any problems.
There won't be any concerns by Monday afternoon besides some light rain with temperatures reaching the 50s. It looks like temperatures will ... gasp ... remain above freezing Monday night.
After this feature moves away Monday night, we should have a couple of lovely days on Tuesday and Wednesday as warmer air moves in. Both days will feature some sun and highs in the 60s. Wednesday likely brings middle to upper 60s to the Midlands, Central Savannah River Area, and Lowcountry. It's likely we stay above freezing those nights, too.
There is uncertainty for later next week. What's likely is for a cold front to move in Wednesday night into Thursday, but with little moisture available. I can't rule out a little rain during this time, but it will likely remain dry. Colder air moving in behind the front likely knocks our temperatures down, but models differ on how well the cold air will penetrate South Carolina. Colder models have us only in the 40s for highs next Friday, but others have us in the low 50s to 60s from north to south.
Models are in better agreement that a storm will move through the region next weekend, bringing South Carolina a good chance for rain. If the colder air wins the battle later next week, this storm will start as a wintry mix in the Upstate, but that's a low-end possibility. The good chance of rain next weekend is the main point I want to get across.