The Atlantic tropics have shown signs of life in recent days. We also had a tropical storm named Cristobal form outside the tropics between Bermuda and the Azores earlier this week, but it was short-lived.
The above loop of visible satellite imagery above shows the features of interest across the North Atlantic and eastern U. S.:
- Tropical waves with attendant low-pressure areas are along 55° west, east of the Lesser Antilles, and along 35° west over the central tropical Atlantic. A new tropical wave just emerged from Africa, and a nearly dormant tropical wave is along 77° west over the Caribbean Sea.
- Dry, dusty air is present between around 15° north and 25° north over the tropical Atlantic.
- A band of clouds associated with a front stretches across the Mid-Atlantic states and the Midwest.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Hostile conditions remain in place over most of the tropical Atlantic, with upper-level westerly winds causing vertical shear over the Caribbean Sea and vicinity, while a dry and dusty air mass is in place over much of the tropical Atlantic.
However, two separate tropical waves have spawned low-pressure areas over the Atlantic to the south of the dry, dusty air. One of them looked like it was on the verge of becoming a tropical cyclone back on Wednesday, but it has become less organized. That tropical wave is along 55° west, just east of the Lesser Antilles. It's encountering strong vertical wind shear now, and the shear will plague it as it moves through the Caribbean. Development now looks unlikely before it reaches Central America, with the National Hurricane Center giving it a 20% chance. The other area to watch is along 36° west, where thunderstorms cluster near a circulation center. The National Hurricane Center gives this feature even-money odds to develop. However, it will eventually move into strong vertical shear, which should tear it apart whether or not it becomes a tropical cyclone.
More robust tropical waves will emerge from Africa in the coming days - 'tis the season - so we'll have to monitor them as they enter and cross the tropical Atlantic. The Madden-Julian Oscillation will become more favorable for Atlantic activity as we approach the end of the month; it's another reason to stay vigilant.
With the hurricane season's 'prime time' underway, please ensure that your hurricane kits are fully stocked. If you need prep advice, hurricane.sc is always the place to go.
SC Weather Highlights For the Next Week:
The next week looks to be another case of hot and hotter. Temperatures will run well above average for mid-August each day through the end of next week. Highs each day will mostly be in the 95-100° range, with hottest spots going above 100°. The Heat Index will peak at or above 105 each day over most of the state, and much of the Coastal Plain will see a peak over 110. That's miserable! An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through Saturday for much of the Lowcountry, and Heat Advisories from the National Weather Service are in effect for the remainder of the state except our sliver of mountains in the far northwest. Take it easy in the heat over the next week and be sure you stay well hydrated and get enough salt, potassium and magnesium in your diet if you must work or choose to play in the heat.
Each day will bring us scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. Proximity to a front becoming stationary over North Carolina this weekend could make the storms a little more widespread across the north and especially the Pee Dee region. Maybe the storms hold high temperatures down a bit, but don't count on it. Thunderstorm coverage will trend down again early next week, with the best chances for a downpour over the Coastal Plain thanks to the sea breeze and in the Upstate, where storms forming over the mountains may wander. A front may reach us late next week or next weekend and finally give us relief from the heat and more widespread thunderstorms.
Don't forget that our summertime thunderstorms sometimes get rambunctious and cause locally damaging wind, or move slowly and cause localized flooding. Move indoors as storms approach and don't drive through flooded areas.
Try to stay cool, y'all.