The lengthy lull in Atlantic tropical activity continues. We have no active systems, and we don't expect to see any form over the next week.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) continues to suppress thunderstorm activity over the Atlantic Basin. It's why we haven't seen any storms form in almost a month. If you've been a subscriber for a while, you know that the MJO is a feature over the world's equatorial region that consists of a large region of rising air and a large region of sinking air. Well, the sinking air has covered the Western Hemisphere since around the time Beryl was moving through the western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (and the arrival of this sinking air is the reason Beryl struggled to maintain intensity while in this area).
This graphic shows the general structure and behavior of the Madden-Julian Oscillation.
However, the MJO drifts eastward over time. It looks like the region of sinking air will shift eastward away from the Atlantic Basin over the next couple of weeks and be replaced by rising air now over the western Pacific and Southeast Asia (where there have been a couple of tropical cyclones recently, one of them a major hurricane hitting Taiwan hard). So, this may result in more favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development over the Atlantic as we head into August.
Some computer models show the risk for development during the first part of August. Of the two tropical waves we have to track today, the one over the eastern Atlantic by Cabo Verde might find more favorable development conditions once it reaches the Caribbean Sea or adjacent area north of the Greater Antilles. So, it might become a feature to watch next week. The other wave is over the Caribbean Sea today and won't develop before it moves over Central America. However, it could become a tropical cyclone over the East Pacific next week.
This loop of visible satellite images from Friday morning shows the progression
of features of interest across the Atlantic Basin.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The long quiet spell we've had over the Atlantic has been great, but nothing lasts forever. The lid will probably come off in a week or so, and early signs are that the weather pattern in early August will favor tracks for any storms that do form to move toward the southeastern states. So, if you've been slacking, get your storm preparations in place over the next week. As always, if you need prep advice, the experts at SCEMD have a guide for you at hurricane.sc.
The wet weather pattern that has been in place over the last week is exactly what we needed to help with the drought that developed from May to early July. While the rain was "too much, too fast" in some areas, resulting in flooding, most of the state has put a dent in the drought. The exception would be parts of the Coastal Plain, as soaking thunderstorms this past week largely sidestepped the northern Lowcountry and lower Pee Dee region.
Rainfall estimates for South Carolina over the last seven days from the
Hydrologic Rainfall Analysis Project.
Image Source: WeatherBELL
The stormy weather pattern is about to take a break for a couple of days. A cold front is moving in from the north, which will bring another round of soaking thunderstorms today, but then the front will push to our south and drier air will move in from the north. On Saturday, we might see isolated showers and storms near our coast, and there might be spillover from storms in western North Carolina into the Upstate, but the rest of the state should see nice weather with lower humidity. Sunday looks good except for perhaps another day of spillover into the western Upstate from activity to our west.
We'll gradually moisten up again early next week. Afternoon storms will cover more of the Upstate on Monday and spread into the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area by evening. Tuesday and Wednesday should feature a routine scattering of afternoon thunderstorms across the state, then Thursday and Friday likely feature fewer storms.
As for temperatures, our welcome stretch of below-average temperatures will likely continue for a few more days; highs will mainly be in the 80s to around 90 across the state through Monday. However, look for it to heat up around the middle of next week as our weather pattern returns to normal, with the 90s becoming more widespread and the usual hotter parts of the state reaching the 94-98° range next Wednesday through Friday.
