The Atlantic tropics are suspiciously quiet right now. After all, we're in what should be the busiest time of the year.
The activity level in the Atlantic usually increases in late August, and it stays active through early October. However, weather satellite imagery shows nothing exciting happening across the Atlantic today.
This loop of visible satellite images ending at 11:10 a.m. EDT shows a general lack of thunderstorm activity over the basin except for the southwestern Atlantic along a stationary front and a tropical wave.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
We have a couple of tropical waves to track. One is over the western Caribbean Sea and extending north into the Bahamas. There are some disorganized thunderstorms with that wave, which will drift westward over the simmering Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Development is unlikely, but we'll track it. Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles along 40° west. It extends far to the north and into the subtropical region. There isn't much thunderstorm activity associated with it, so it looks unlikely to develop further.
I'll also have to point out the band of clouds off our coast and extending into the Gulf of Mexico; that's a stationary front, the front that led the wonderfully cool and dry air into South Carolina that we have enjoyed this week. Stationary fronts in this area are always a wild card this time of year and it will have to be watched closely for little swirls forming along it.
That's it today, though I'll mention a robust-looking tropical wave is over West Africa now with a swirl of thunderstorm clouds centered over Ghana and Togo. That feature will be interesting once it reaches the eastern Atlantic. However, computer models show its thunderstorms going kaput by the time it reaches Cabo Verde, as has happened with a few similar features that have emerged from West Africa lately.
You should know the drill: it's important to stay prepared even during the quiet times. We're still not even halfway through the hurricane season, and there are signs that things will perk up in the tropics once we reach early September. The situation may look different a week from now. So, it's important that your preparation ducks are in proper linear alignment, and SCEMD has the best alignment tool at hurricane.sc.
Our weather has been magnificent for the last few days. This morning was certainly fall-like over most of the state. I had a low of 54° at my new home near Gaston this morning...that's the Sand Hills for you on a dry, clear, and calm night!
As much as I'd love to tell y'all that we have several more days of the late September-like air to enjoy, that would be a lie. We're about to snap back to reality as both temperatures and humidity will steadily creep upward in the coming days. After a warmer but still pleasant Saturday, we'll return to normal on Sunday, then look for midsummer heat most of next week. Highs will be in the middle 90s on Tuesday through Thursday.
Rain prospects over the next week are slim, except along our coast over the next few days. The stationary front just offshore will cause a scattering of mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms this weekend. The front will wither away early next week, so this shower activity will be sparse on Monday and likely gone by Tuesday.
I don't think I'll hear many complaints about the lack of rain as our rivers are still draining all the rain from Debby. Well, there is one exception: not much rain fell from Debby up in Oconee, Pickens, and Anderson Counties, and that area needs rain. Elsewhere, flooding is winding down, with only the Little Pee Dee and Waccamaw still above flood stage now, and those will continue a slow but steady fall over the next week.
We'll have a 'not as hot front' reach us in about a week to cool things down, but the timing is uncertain. Some computer models bring the front to us by Thursday while others show it arriving next Saturday. When the front finally does get to us, we'll start seeing pop-up afternoon thunderstorms to quench the heat, but we will be simmering next week until the front gets here.
