We have no active tropical cyclones across the Atlantic Basin today, and it's unlikely that we'll see any form over the next week. There are a few tropical waves to track across the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, but none are producing much shower and thunderstorm activity.
This visible satellite image from this morning shows a few inactive tropical waves in the Atlantic and low pressure along the SC coast.
We can thank the Madden-Julian Oscillation (more on the MJO if you're new here) for the period of inactivity underway in this part of the world now. The MJO will continue to suppress tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Basin for the rest of July, and tropical waves will remain mostly harmless as they drift westward across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.
However, tropical waves aren't the only way the atmosphere can generate a tropical cyclone. When cold fronts (OK, "not as hot fronts") move through the eastern U. S. and become stationary over the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic this time of year, we sometimes see low-pressure areas form along them that evolve into tropical cyclones. It was the reason for the "yellow alert" area off our coast over the last couple of days, though the National Hurricane Center now thinks there is no chance for development here.
Friday morning's Seven Day Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center indicates no development from weak low pressure along our coast and no other features of interest.
However, this area of disturbed weather will bring badly needed rain to the eastern half of our state and to our vinegar-loving neighbor to the north (who also is suffering from drought conditions). More on that below. Once this feature pulls away to the north on Saturday, we'll have tranquility for a while, but another front will likely push into the Southeast later next week and become stationary. This will bring back a small chance for a sneaky tropical cyclone spin-up over the northern Gulf of Mexico or off the Southeast Coast.
Things are quiet in the Atlantic tropics and nobody's complaining. However, a lack of preparedness is something to complain about. The tranquil spell in the Atlantic won't last forever and when it turns more active again (probably in mid-to-late August), it could turn hyperactive. So be sure you're ready for storms that may affect us during the usual active part of the hurricane season from late August to early October. If you need preparation tips, hurricane.sc is the place to go.
We Need Rain!
You don't need me to tell you it's been mighty dry lately. Most of the state is in drought and parts of the Pee Dee and eastern Midlands are in extreme drought conditions.
The U. S. Drought Monitor for South Carolina from July 9 shows nearly 75% of South Carolina suffering from drought conditions.
There are some opportunities for relief ahead, though. As mentioned above, a "not as hot front" moved through back on Wednesday and became stationary near our coast. So, we had some rain along and near the Grand Strand on Thursday and this rain is spreading over more of the state today. Areas east of I-77 and U. S. 321 are subject to seeing at least isolated showers and thunderstorms, though the most substantial rain will likely remain confined to the Pee Dee region. Weak low pressure that has formed along the front will pull away to the north tonight and the front will dissipate over the weekend. So, rain chances will be lower on Saturday and Sunday. Most of this activity will occur along our Coastal Plain during the afternoon and evening hours.
With the reduction of rain chances comes an increase in heat. I'm sure y'all appreciated the drop in heat and humidity over the last couple of days but we'll return to the furnace over the weekend. Sunday through Wednesday all likely feature highs in the 95-100° range. Of course, higher spots in the Upstate and coastal areas will be less hot, and the usual I-20 hot spots could get above 100°. Monday and Tuesday will bring little in the way of our usual pop-up afternoon thunderstorms. They might be a little more widespread on Wednesday.
Later next week, another "not as hot front" will move into the Southeast. I'm cautiously optimistic that this front will push into South Carolina and become stationary for a while, giving us a period of busier weather from Thursday through next weekend. If this setup works out as it's looking now, we'll see good shower and thunderstorm coverage starting Thursday and lasting 4-5 days. The rain and clouds would hold our temperatures down. Let's hope and pray that this forecast will verify.
