The Atlantic tropics remain largely calm. We have a few tropical waves to track, but none are showing any sign of organization.
The first of our tropical waves is along 83° west, south of Cuba. Limited thunderstorm activity is occurring with this wave. It will move into Central America tonight and could develop further in the East Pacific, but it won't pose a problem for us. The second wave is in the eastern Caribbean Sea along 64° west. This wave is mostly over South America, making further development unlikely. It will push into Central America Sunday or Sunday night and then might have a chance to develop over the East Pacific next week, but it's also no worry for us. The other tropical wave to watch is over the eastern tropical Atlantic along 34° west. It's embedded in a dry air mass and isn't generating much thunderstorm activity. This is also an unfavorable area for development from a climatological standpoint. Once the wave reaches the Caribbean Sea, we might have to watch it closer.
A loop of visible satellite imagery reveals tranquility over most of the Atlantic Basin. Weak tropical waves are causing limited thunderstorm activity over parts of the Caribbean Sea.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
As for prospects for development in the long range, we continue to have the American GFS model and its ensemble insisting that development might occur in a week or so over the western Caribbean Sea, southern Gulf, or the Bay of Campeche. Other models seem less impressed with the situation. The GFS is known to catch developments that other models miss while generating a ton of false alarms. So, we'll keep an eye on this situation, but you can let me do the worrying for now.
Narrator voice: "Frank isn't worried yet."
However, I do worry that South Carolinians will remain unprepared for storms that could affect us later this year. You should be concerned about this risk, too. So, ensure that you have your general disaster preparations and advance hurricane preparations in place. If you need tips, the place to go is hurricane.sc.
Our weather is looking relatively active over the next week, especially through this weekend, but also routine. It's normal for it to be warm-to-hot and steamy here this time of year, and that's what you can expect. Through this weekend, we have a soupy air mass in place over the region, and a weak upper-level trough (a southward bend in the upper-level wind that promotes unsettled weather) now over the middle Mississippi Valley will drift through on Sunday. You can expect to see showers and thunderstorms erupt each afternoon, perhaps as early as midday. Most places will see measurable rainfall each afternoon. However, the severe storm risk is low. It's not zero; a couple of storms with locally damaging wind can occur each afternoon, but only a few spots will experience that misfortune. Storms should be most widespread Sunday afternoon with the upper trough overhead. The rain chances will limit the heat each day, with highs mostly 85-90 around the state.
Starting with Monday, an upper-level ridge (a poleward bend in the upper-level winds that promotes warm and tranquil weather) will develop over the Southeast and western Atlantic, which will result in a trend toward hotter and less active weather. Afternoon thunderstorms will become less widespread, and it will take longer to get going (starting to pop at 2-3 p.m. rather than noon or 1 p.m.). Storms will be most concentrated where a trigger for them is present, which would be over the inland Coastal Plain thanks to the sea breeze or in the Upstate due to uneven heating over the mountains resulting in storm development. Temperatures trend upward, and by midweek, highs will be in the 90s over most of the state and middle 90s in the usual hotter areas.
Computer models indicate that a cold front (perhaps the last one we see for a while) will move in at the end of next week, perhaps causing gusty storms as it moves through and cooling us off a little for next weekend.
The good news about the active weather pattern we have been in is that only a small part of the state remains in drought. With summertime thunderstorms remaining widespread over the coming days, we may eliminate this patch of drought soon.
