While we have one feature of interest that has a good chance to become a tropical cyclone in the coming days, we have no tropical cyclones to track across the Atlantic Basin today.
This loop of visible satellite images show the features of interest across the Atlantic Basin this morning. The low pressure area and tropical wave along 37° west is the only area of concern right now.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
We have tropical waves over the eastern Caribbean Sea near 65° west and over the middle of the tropical Atlantic near 37° west. The Caribbean wave is disorganized and has little shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it, while the wave over the Atlantic is much more interesting. An area of low pressure is present with this wave, and there is a limited amount of showers and thunderstorms with it.
We'll have to keep a close watch on the Atlantic wave, which the National Hurricane Center is watching closely and calling Invest Area 91L. That part of the Atlantic isn't the greatest area for a tropical cyclone to form because dry and stable air is pushing in from the north, and there is subsidence (a fancy word we meteorologists use to describe sinking air ... blame the Madden-Julian Oscillation for the subsidence) over the eastern part of the Atlantic Basin. However, as the wave tracks westward, the setup improves. Not only do the waters get warmer, but there should be more humidity and less subsidence where this feature is headed.
NHC says the feature has a 60 percent chance to become a tropical cyclone in the next two days and a 90 percent chance to do so over the next week. I am skeptical that it will develop quickly, but it certainly has potential over time. It's a slow mover, so it will be a thorn in our side out there for a while. The main question we all have is whether it will ever affect us in South Carolina. It's too soon to say. If it develops quickly, in the next 2-3 days, it likely will turn north and stay over the middle of the Atlantic. If it keeps struggling, then it's likely to end up over the Caribbean Sea, and perhaps we'll be tracking it there a week from today.
Other interesting features include the band of clouds associated with a stationary front off the East Coast and a blob of thunderstorms southeast of Bermuda. The latter is an upper-level low, and those features rarely transition into a tropical cyclone. Stationary fronts off the East Coast are notorious for surprising us with sudden tropical spin-ups, but that appears unlikely with no computer models showing this will happen over the next week.
We still have no imminent threats, but with hurricane season nearing its peak, it's essential to ensure you're prepared for storms that may impact us throughout the rest of the season. Visit hurricane.sc and keep on preppin'.
Our weather has also been pretty quiet for a while. Aside from parts of the Lowcountry getting a soaking last Friday and Saturday and some spotty thunderstorm activity over the Upstate in recent days, we've been dry lately. My grass is crunchy because it's been two weeks since my rain gauge has collected anything measurable.
This plot of rainfall over the last 7 days ending at 7 a.m. Thursday from the HRAP system shows that most of the state has been dry or nearly dry over the past week.
Image Source: WeatherBELL
Rain chances finally return over the next couple of days as a cold front moves in. Unfortunately, it's slower than I expected a week ago and arriving on the weekend. The front's approach should be enough to trigger a stray shower or thunderstorm over the Upstate this afternoon and evening, especially northwest of I-85. The coverage of showers and storms should increase over the Upstate and vicinity for Saturday afternoon and night. The front will shift southeastward into the Coastal Plain on Sunday, where we'll see the best chance for rain. As for temperatures, it's feeling like summertime today and Saturday with highs mainly in the lower to middle 90s across the state, along with higher humidity than we've seen lately. Then on Sunday, cooler and drier air will filter into the Upstate and Catawba River Area, but the rest of the state will simmer again with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
The front will shift south of us Sunday night, becoming stationary offshore, allowing another shot of unusually cool and dry air to push in. So, we're in for a stretch of lovely, mainly sunny days and comfortable nights next week as high pressure of polar origin centered to our north controls our weather. Highs will only be in the upper 70s to middle 80s across the state Monday and Tuesday. After that, we'll see a slow warmup through the rest of the week to typical late summer warmth, but we'll remain dry and mainly sunny each day. One possible exception is that a few models show the stationary front offshore drifting far enough west that our coastal areas see showers starting Tuesday.
However, most of the state will likely remain dry for several days. It might stay warm and dry next weekend as well; we could go 8-10 days before there's another good chance for rain after this weekend, except near our coast.