We don't have any tropical cyclones to track in the Atlantic today, but that will likely change in the coming days. As expected, the usual eastward drift of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (here's a primer on the MJO if you're new here) is about to bring more favorable conditions for thunderstorms and tropical cyclone formation to this side of the world. I expect we'll see at least a couple of storms form through mid-month. Being able to say storms will form and the general area where they will form is one thing; telling where they will go is another matter. Potential effects on South Carolina are one of several possibilities.
Here's the state of the Atlantic Basin this morning:
This annotated loop of visible satellite images shows features of interest for tropical development over the next week.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Of the three areas the National Hurricane Center (NHC) thinks we need to watch, there are two that are a concern for us. The one over by the Azores (Disturbance 3) is an extratropical storm that might evolve into a tropical storm over the next few days. It's too far away to affect us, and it will move eastward toward Europe.
The western Caribbean Sea is the primary area to watch over the next week. There isn't much happening there today, but we will likely see an area of low-pressure form there over the weekend. Waters remain warm over the Caribbean year-round, and upper-level westerly winds causing vertical wind shear over most of this area today should relax in the coming days. So, we're likely to see a tropical depression or storm form here by the middle of next week, a 70% chance according to NHC. As mentioned above, it's too early to say where it might go. Around midweek, we may have an upper-level trough and surface cold front moving into the eastern part of the country, which could steer the storm or some of its moisture our way. Other possibilities include a track to the east over the Atlantic; another is the feature not being picked up by the trough and front, staying behind in the tropics, and ending up in Mexico later next week.
The other area to watch (Disturbance 2) is near Puerto Rico, and it has a good bit of associated thunderstorm activity, but strong westerly winds aloft are causing vertical shear. One possibility is for a weak storm to form here that shoots westward across Cuba and into the Gulf of Mexico. However, it seems more likely that any nascent storm that comes from this disturbance would get pulled into the low-pressure area in the Caribbean Sea.
Over the tropical Atlantic, there are two tropical waves to track (near 48° west and along 36° west), but neither looks concerning for the short term. We'll have to watch them as they move into the Caribbean next week, where conditions for development could be more favorable.
Stay on your toes for the next 15-20 days while the MJO is favorable for storms to form over the Atlantic. Make sure your disaster prep is as it should be. If you need advice, hurricane.sc is the place to go.
October was the driest month on record over most of the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area. Most places saw no rain or nothing measurable.
The rest of the state was very dry, too. Only one small area of the state had over an inch of rain during the month (congrats, Fort Mill). USC and Clemson's October rainfall game ended in a 0-0 tie (congrats to Coastal, Conway had 0.69"). So, it should be unsurprising that drought conditions have expanded across South Carolina over the last week.
We need a drink of water, but rain chances are not good for the short term. A cold front is moving into South Carolina today, but it's moisture-starved. Spotty light shower activity is all we can hope for as the front moves in, becomes stationary over the Lowcountry, and fizzles out over the next few days. The front brings us a couple of cooler days on Sunday and Monday before we return to late September warmth again by Tuesday.
After that, rain chances may improve if we see a tropical cyclone come our way from the south. That's a big if, but a good soaking might be the silver lining from such a scenario. Should the storm to our south take a different track that sidesteps South Carolina, the next cold front coming our way later next week would have little moisture to work with and would not generate much rain for us.
So, in a nutshell, rainfall Famine Mode continues, with a chance for a feast next week.
