The peaceful, easy feeling in the Atlantic tropics continues. While we have a couple of tropical waves to track in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, along with a weak area of low pressure about 400 miles east of Charleston, none of these features show any promise for further development.
This visible satellite image shows the interesting features across the Atlantic Basin today:
- A weak low pressure area centered about 400 miles east of Charleston
- A tropical wave along 64° west, over the western Caribbean Sea
- A tropical wave along 33° west, over the middle of the tropical Atlantic
All of these features are in hostile environments. The swirl east of Charleston is embedded in a dry air mass, and the upper-level winds are unfavorable for development. The tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea will continue to battle strong westerly winds aloft, producing vertical shear as it drifts toward Central America. The other tropical wave over the middle of the tropical Atlantic is in a dry, stable environment. It must also contend with strong westerly winds aloft, so it has little or no chance of developing further.
The Atlantic Basin is likely to remain a dead zone for a while. The El Niño-induced wind shear is likely to continue for the next two weeks across most of the Atlantic tropics, and the Bermuda-Azores high-pressure area will strengthen and keep the subtropical Atlantic (the area from the Tropic of Cancer to 35° north) free of activity. It also looks like the Madden-Julian Oscillation is about to go on hiatus for a while and provide little or no input to the equation. There are signs that the Caribbean Sea and Gulf could become a more favorable environment later in the month, if the upper-level winds relax.
I'm as happy as you are that our tropics will remain quiet for a while (I have plenty of past storm research side projects to fill my spare time). However, it's a long hurricane season, and it's still early. It's important to be ready for the risk we face from hurricanes, and if you need readiness advice, SCEMD has you covered at hurricane.sc.
SC Weather Highlights for the next week or so:
The heat wave we're in has turned out to be an 'over-the-top' situation, where the hottest air has passed by to our north and hit our neighbors to the north hardest. 100° heat occurred all the way up to Boston on Thursday, and parts of Virginia and Maryland were over 100°; Washington was 102°.
That said, we're still plenty hot, and the hottest days are ahead. Most of the state will continue to see highs in the 95-100° range, with the hottest spots over 100°, through Monday. The heat index will peak over 100 through the holiday weekend, with most of the I-20 Corridor and south seeing a peak index of a dangerously hot 105-110.
Cooling afternoon thunderstorms will be few and far between through Sunday; the few that pop up will remain confined to the Upstate and the inland Coastal Plain.
The heat is likely to ease starting Tuesday as a change in the weather pattern allows a cold front to push into this part of the country. That will result in less heat and more widespread afternoon thunderstorms for us for a few days. We probably get hotter again at the end of next week and next weekend, before we see some more substantial heat relief and rain chances the following week.
Happy Independence Day, y'all! Be careful in the heat and with those fireworks!
