We can be thankful that most of the severe thunderstorms stayed up in North Carolina last night, with the exception of one storm that dropped hail on York and Rock Hill (of course). However, as a cold front moves through today, most of South Carolina is subject to seeing a thunderstorm again, and the storms could be locally severe over much of the state.
The Storm Prediction Center has more than half the state in a level 1 of 5 severe storm risk area due to the risk of locally damaging wind and hail with today's storms. Otherwise, it remains warm and humid today with highs ranging from near 80 in the Upstate to around 85 along the Coastal Plain.
The front will become stationary over southern Georgia and the Lowcountry tonight and will remain over us for days. Meanwhile, a slow-moving storm system now over Texas will slowly drift eastward and pump moisture in from the south. As this storm drifts into and through the Southeast, we will have a wet weekend and the first part of next week.
Light rain will spread over the Lowcountry tonight and slowly edge northward on Saturday. Waves of heavier rain and some embedded thunderstorms will spread northward as the day continues. If you're north of I-20, you might be dry for a part of the day, perhaps most of the day, before the rain arrives.
We will see more waves of rain, some of it heavy and with embedded thunderstorms possible, through Sunday and Monday. While this is exactly what the areas of our state dealing with drought need, the soaking rains can result in flooding in some areas. The flooding risk will be highest on Monday, when the rain will be steadiest and heaviest across the state. On Monday, the Weather Prediction Center has just about the whole state at a level 2 of 4 risk area for excessive rainfall.
Clouds, rain, and northeasterly to easterly winds will keep us cool through the weekend and Monday. Highs will only be in the upper 60s to middle 70s each day, with parts of the Lowcountry reaching the upper 70s on Sunday and Monday.
By Tuesday, the storm will finally slide away to the northeast, but we're likely to see some leftover showers, and some areas could get a thunderstorm. A shower or two may also pop up on Wednesday, but we're looking mainly rain-free that day. We'll see a warming trend, with most of the state in the mid-80s for highs by Wednesday.
Late next week looks mainly rain-free and summery as an upper-level ridge sets up shop over the Southeast. Our highs will likely be in the 85-90° range at the end of next week.
Drought conditions across South Carolina worsened in a few parts of the state over the last week but improved in a few others; most of the state remained the same as the week before.
Soaking rains this weekend and Monday will bring relief to the areas suffering from drought. Long-range outlooks indicate that near-normal rainfall is likely through the rest of May and early June. After seeing how much rain falls over the next week, we'll have to reevaluate the drought and forecast, but things are looking up in the drought department for now.
