The hurricane season ends Saturday, but I'm gonna go ahead and "caaaall it" over (you can tell I passed through Spartanburg yesterday). There's no concern for tropical developments as we head into the offseason. The satellite loop below shows how it looks out there.
A visible satellite loop from this morning shows clouds in motion over the Atlantic Basin.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The only feature that catches the eye is a little area of low pressure over the western Caribbean Sea, southwest of Jamaica. Waters are plenty warm enough to support development here, but vertical wind shear is tearing apart the few thunderstorms associated with the low. Were it not for the shear, we'd be on the lookout for a postseason development. However, the strong upper-level southwesterly winds causing the shear will continue, preventing this feature from becoming a tropical cyclone.
December tropical cyclones are not unheard of, but it's unlikely that we see one this year. Only a handful of storms have formed from January to April, and only one has affected South Carolina (passing just offshore in February 1952). So, we'll return our focus to the tropics again once May rolls around unless some oddball development occurs.
You're probably as glad as I am that the hurricane season is over. We sure took our lumps from tropical cyclones this year. Debby drowned us with rain in August, and the Upstate is still working on the cleanup from Helene's rampage in September. We also had some minor fringe effects from Milton in October along our coast.
Stay prepared, though. Hurricanes aren't the only potential disaster we face. Along with hurricane.sc, SCEMD has earthquake.sc and a Severe Winter Weather Guide to help you remain prepared.
With the hurricane season ending, it seems right on cue that the coldest air we have seen so far this season is moving into South Carolina in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Rain amounts with the front were disappointing. I wish I had better news about our rain prospects, but it's looking mainly dry over the next week or so. Perhaps that's for the better since it's going to be cold.
If your growing season hasn't ended yet, it will soon. The next week will feel like January. Lows will be subfreezing across the entire state except for the immediate coastal areas over the weekend. A surge of even colder air arriving Monday will send most coastal areas to or below freezing during the first part of next week. Hard freezes with lows in the 20s are coming to the rest of the state. Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest; it could even reach the teens in the coldest spots from the Upstate to upper Pee Dee that morning.
It will be hard to rustle up even any clouds with Monday's front, much less rain.
We'll keep highs mainly in the 50s through this weekend (40s Saturday in the Upstate, and some Lowcountry spots can get to 60 or so Sunday) despite plenty of sunshine. Early next week, highs will range from the 40s to 50s from Upstate to Lowcountry with nearly ineffective sunshine; we'll see lower 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday.
Temperatures will moderate Wednesday into Thursday before another cold front arrives at the end of next week. The odds are better for some rain with that front but don't expect much. Another shot of frigid air will move in behind that front.
With dry weather continuing for another week or more, look for drought conditions to expand across South Carolina during early December. We're up to about 10 percent of the state affected by drought, and more than half the state is considered abnormally dry.
The U. S. Drought Monitor issued on Tuesday showed most of South Carolina to be abnormally dry and most coastal areas in a moderate drought.
