National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to Nov. 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms – winds of 39 mph or higher. Of those, eight to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes – winds of 74 mph or higher – including four to seven major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher. Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to factors including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with lifesaving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development.
This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge.
Enhanced communications in store for 2024 season
NOAA will implement improvements to its forecast communications, decision support and storm recovery efforts this season. These include:
* The National Hurricane Center will expand its offering of Spanish language text products to include all public advisories, the tropical cyclone discussion, the tropical cyclone update and key messages in the Atlantic basin.
* Beginning around Aug.15, NHC will start to issue an experimental version of the forecast cone graphic that includes a depiction of inland tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings in effect for the continental United States.
* This season, the NHC will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories. This means that if updates to watches and warnings for storm surge or winds are needed, the NHC will be able to notify the public in an intermediate advisory instead of waiting for the next full advisory issued every six hours.