Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm after briefly becoming a hurricane before making landfall last night near Vero Beach, Florida. There is little change to the forecast from yesterday on Nicole’s track, only a small westward shift of the track and a slight reduction in sustained winds while Nicole is in South Carolina.
The 10 a.m. EST Thursday advisory graphic from NHC for Nicole shows the forecast track, uncertainty cone, and current watches and warnings.
The primary concerns for South Carolina remain rainfall and isolated tornado risks. Most of the state will see a soaking, but only two areas will see enough rain for a flooding concern.
The Weather Prediction Center’s excessive rainfall outlook graphic for today and tonight.
The Weather Prediction Center’s excessive rainfall outlook graphic
for Friday and Friday night.
Rain has started in our coastal areas and will spread northwestward over the rest of the state today. Higher rain amounts could warrant concern for localized flash flooding over a large part of the Lowcountry. Then later tonight and tomorrow, heavy rain in the Upstate, especially the mountains, can lead to flash flooding.
The National Weather Service rainfall forecast for 9 a.m. Thursday
through 1 a.m. Saturday across South Carolina.
Image source: WeatherBELL
The severe thunderstorm risk outlook areas have changed a bit since yesterday; the areas for today and tonight have expanded slightly but have shrunk for Friday.
The Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook graphic
for Thursday and Thursday night.
The Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook graphic
for Friday and Friday night.
Nicole’s outer bands will provide a favorable environment for thunderstorms with rotating updrafts, so we’ll have to watch for isolated tornadoes as Nicole moves through the region. The thunderstorms will also be the mechanism that can cause locally damaging winds as Nicole moves through. As a tropical cyclone weakens over land, the winds near the surface slow down faster than they do aloft due to friction between the air and the ground. Thunderstorms can bring the still-fast winds aloft down to the surface.
Be sure that you have at least two ways to receive tornado warnings and that they will wake you if a warning is issued for your area. Also, decide on your best shelter area now if you haven’t already because you may not have time for this when a warning is issued. Advanced planning is the key to protecting your and your family’s lives and property when faced with a tornado risk.
There has been little change to Nicole’s coastal flooding and storm surge forecast since yesterday.
The National Weather Service forecast for tides at the Charleston Harbor
tide gauge through Sunday morning.
Gusty onshore winds combined with high astronomical tides led to major coastal flooding along the Lowcountry coast this morning and minor flooding along the Grand Strand. What we saw this morning could end up being the worst flooding for this event. However, Nicole will bring a storm surge as it moves through the state tonight and tomorrow. If the greatest surge occurs at high tide tomorrow morning, water levels might approach what we saw this morning. If it’s between high tides, a prolonged period of minor-to-moderate flooding will occur. The latest surge forecast calls for a surge of 1-2 feet along the Grand Strand and 2-4 feet along the Lowcountry coast. Also, should heavy rain occur at this evening’s high tide, this will exacerbate the flooding. The high water levels and pounding surf will result in some beach erosion.
NHC’s Peak Storm Surge Forecast graphic from 10 a.m. EST Thursday.
Remember that this is the forecast surge on top of the tidal water level.
The wind risk from Nicole looks about the same as it did yesterday. It will weaken steadily on its way into South Carolina tomorrow. Any sustained tropical storm force winds would be confined to our coastal waters and the coast of the Lowcountry.
Peak gusts, however, can reach 55 mph along the Lowcountry coast, 40-50 mph along the rest of the Coastal Plain, and 35-40 mph elsewhere in the state. As mentioned above, these would mainly be associated with thunderstorms in Nicole’s spiral bands. Combined with the soaking rain, this might be enough to knock down a few trees and power lines.
Behind Nicole, look for a cold front to pass through Saturday evening, which will cause little or no additional rain. That front will lead much cooler air into the state, cold enough to drop temperatures to freezing in the Upstate on Monday morning. More on that tomorrow.
Be sure you’re prepared for Nicole to pass through. As always, preparation tips are found at hurricane.sc. See y’all again tomorrow!