Congratulations on surviving another hurricane season! The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season ends today. As we expect at the end of November, there are no features of interest for tropical development in the Atlantic.
While we're putting this hurricane season to bed today, remember that tropical cyclones occasionally occur in the offseason. May and December are the most active off-season months. A December tropical cyclone occurs about once every six years on average, considering the historical record beginning in 1851, but five have formed in December since 2000. A tropical cyclone forms roughly once every three years in May, though nine have occurred in the last ten Atlantic hurricane seasons. Only three have occurred in January through April since 2000 and 16 since 1851.
Most tropical cyclones forming from December to April do so either in the Caribbean, or over the middle of the Atlantic. Waters in the Caribbean remain warm enough to support a tropical cyclone year-round, but it's rare for upper-level winds to be conducive for one to form. Over the middle of the Atlantic, the few storms that form in the offseason originate from extratropical storms that become separated from the main jet stream and wander over waters warm enough to allow for a tropical transition. In May, the areas to watch are the Caribbean, the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and the area near The Bahamas.
It is rare for South Carolina to see impacts from a tropical cyclone from December to April. Only one affected the state in December 1925. We're much more likely to see effects in May; eleven tropical cyclones have impacted us in May since 1851. Notable recent May storms that have impacted the state include Beryl in 2012, Ana in 2015, Bonnie in 2016, Alberto in 2018, and Bertha in 2020.
While the statistics show that tropical cyclones aren't a significant threat over the next five months, we have plenty of other reasons to stay ready and maintain a disaster kit. We get floods, tornadoes (our tornado season starts on January 1 and ends on December 31), earthquakes, and (gasp) even winter storms. So, keep your disaster kits stocked and visit SCEMD's website for preparation tips.
With the hurricane season ending today, I'm sure the question on many South Carolinians' minds is, "When will it snow?" The short answer to this is "not soon." The current weather pattern, which will hold for another 7-10 days, favors above-average temperatures. So, there is no concern for a winter storm for a while.
This is not to say that every day will be warm. The cold front that brought us rain and an embedded thunderstorm today will usher in a colder air mass that sends temperatures below average for tomorrow and Friday. Warm air will return this weekend. Another cold front will move in on Sunday to bring a temporary return to near-average temperatures, with warmer air back by Tuesday.
This back-and-forth in our temperatures (but overall warmer than average) will continue until around the middle of the month. There are signs of a change in the weather pattern starting around December 12-15 to one favoring colder-than-average temperatures for a while, and we might see a realistic chance for snow and ice.
Rain chances continue over the next couple of weeks when cold fronts move through the region. Not every cold front crossing the state will bring a soaking like much of the state saw this morning, but rainfall looks near average overall. With warmer-than-average temperatures comes the potential for thunderstorms as well.
And yes, our "snow within ten days after a thunderstorm" old wives' tale season starts tomorrow!
A final word for today: this isn't the final word! Unlike previous years, I'll continue issuing Weather Alerts on Fridays through the winter and spring, with more frequent issuances as necessary. Many of them will be very short, to say "I got nothin' right now," but y'all won't be going weeks without hearing from me.
As always, thanks for reading!