A plot of named storm and hurricane activity by date for 1944-2020, showing the most active time for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic to be mid-August through mid-October.
Not a lot is happening in the tropical Atlantic right now. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecasts no tropical cyclones to form over the next week.
NHC's 7-day outlook graphic for the Atlantic Basin; they expect no tropical cyclones to form over the next week.
Weather satellite imagery shows only a little thunderstorm activity over the tropical and subtropical Atlantic.
A loop of true color satellite images from this morning showing the Atlantic Basin. Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
There are a few tropical waves to track. One is along 62° west, causing showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles. However, this activity is disorganized and it's unlikely that this feature develops further before it reaches Central America. Another tropical wave is along 48° west, but there isn't much shower and thunderstorm activity associated with it. It's also unlikely that this wave develops further while over the Atlantic.
A third tropical wave is along 33° west over the eastern tropical Atlantic. This one is a bit more interesting. There is a limited amount of thunderstorm activity with it and a broad turning motion is evident in the satellite loop. While it's unlikely that we see it develop over the next 5-7 days, some computer models show development from this feature later next week or next weekend once it reaches the Lesser Antilles. So, this is one we'll have to keep an eye on. It's too early to say if it might become a threat to South Carolina.
We'll also have to watch for sneaky developments over the Gulf of Mexico and off the Southeast Coast or east of the Bahamas because of our current weather pattern. Cold fronts have been pushing farther south than usual and becoming stationary to our south and east. With the waters so warm in that area this time of year (and 3-5°F warmer than usual), it would be no surprise to have a low pressure area form along an old front that quickly turns into a tropical cyclone.
I'll keep saying it: quiet times like we're in now are the best time to prepare for storms that might affect us later in the season. If you need prep advice, visit hurricane.sc as SCEMD has paid the cost to be the boss of hurricane prep advice.
One of those out-of-season cold fronts moved through South Carolina Thursday, giving much of the state something most of us are happy to see in August, a relatively cool and rainy weekday. Clouds and rain kept temperatures in the 70s in the Upstate! Beaufort still managed to get to 90°, though, and Charleston saw 89°. We remain relatively cool today, though not as cool as yesterday. Some places will see an afternoon shower or thunderstorm, but the rain won't be as widespread as yesterday.
We can't expect this to continue in August, of course. Expect temperatures to return to normal again for the weekend with highs mostly in the upper 80s and low 90s, middle 90s in the usual hot spots. Saturday looks mainly rain-free except for a stray sea-breeze-triggered afternoon shower or thunderstorm over the Coastal Plain. Pop-up thunderstorm chances increase over the Upstate, Central Savannah River Area and Lowcountry on Sunday as the front retreats northward.
The first part of next week features typical August weather with highs mostly 90-95° except for 80s at the beaches and in the higher spots of the Upstate. Another front gets into the area Monday to enhance afternoon thunderstorm chances, and this front may still be over part or all of the state Tuesday. Wednesday looks quieter and slightly less hot, then another cold front could reach us later next week.
I have one more item for y'all today. SCEMD is still looking for responses to its Hurricane Evacuation Study survey. The survey will help them better understand public behaviors and perceptions about hurricane evacuations. The survey responses are anonymous, and it takes about ten minutes. They're looking for people 18 or older living in a coastal county or who own property in a coastal county to take the survey.
The survey is available in English and in Spanish from SCEMD's website.
