Key Points:
- Lee likely passes well east of South Carolina during the middle and end of next week. However, there is a slight chance it gets closer to South Carolina than expected, so direct effects still can't be ruled out.
- Lee will cause significant beach and boating impacts along our coast next week. The surf will be rough with a high rip current risk. There may be beach erosion. Boating will be hazardous on our coastal waters starting Monday.
Watching Lee
Of course, our primary focus today is Hurricane Lee, which has gone into Beast Mode over the last 36 hours and is now a Category 4 hurricane centered northeast of the Leeward Islands. Let me begin by saying this:
DON'T PANIC
I can't pass up a Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reference when the opportunity arises.
While Lee is a storm we must watch, our best computer models and hurricane history are on our side unless you have a beach trip or a cruise scheduled for next week. As for hurricane history, there are 12 major hurricanes in our historical record extending back to 1851 that have passed within 60 nautical miles (69 statute miles) of Lee's current location.
The tracks of the 12 major hurricanes that passed within 60 nautical miles of Lee's current position. Source: NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks Website
Of the 12, eight passed by far to the east, two were uncomfortably close, one hit Florida (Frances 2004, decidedly not fun for us in South Carolina with flooding rain, coastal flooding, and 46 tornadoes), and the Charleston Hurricane of 1893 (A Category 3 landfall near McClellanville, so even less fun for us, we do not want that to happen again).
So, history tells us we have good odds of dodging a 𝖻̶𝗎̶𝗅̶𝗅̶𝖾̶𝗍̶ cannonball here, though there's maybe a 15 percent chance of having to deal with direct impacts.
Models give us a similar outlook. The general consensus from the models tells us that Lee will stay on its northwestward track over the next three days while slowing down, and then we likely see a northward turn in the middle of next week near 70° west longitude (the sooner, the better, the later the worse). The models are summarized nicely by a plot created by a graduate student at the University of Oklahoma.
A plot summarizing the output of four of the world's best global ensemble models on Hurricane Lee's track. Source: Tomer Berg's Real Time Tropical Cyclones Website
The chart above uses the plots of 111 different computer model runs from four systems (each ensemble member from the four systems uses slightly different initial conditions before number crunching begins to arrive at a forecast). In this case, there is a wide spread in possible track solutions, though we see a majority clustered on a northward turn somewhere between 65°W and 70°W. This clustering gives us more confidence in the northward turn. If the consensus is correct, Lee will pass far enough to the east that there will be no direct impacts (wind, rain, storm surge, and tornadoes) from it in South Carolina.
Of course, models are wrong sometimes. Actually, they're literally always wrong about something; only the degree of inaccuracy varies. So, we must keep a close watch on Lee, but I'm cautiously optimistic that we avoid the worst of this storm.
However, there will be impacts along our coast next week. Hurricanes create ocean swells, and Lee is making big ones. They will arrive in our coastal waters early next week. The swells will cause dangerous surf for those at the beaches with a high rip current risk and hazardous boating conditions on our coastal waters. There might be beach erosion from those swells crashing ashore. Also, we have a new moon next week, leading to high astronomical tides. This increases the potential for beach erosion and may exacerbate the tidal flooding that is frequent along our coast during a new and full moon.
As always, I urge you to have your disaster kits fully stocked and ready in case Lee surprises us. I'd say that even if we didn't have a major hurricane marching into the western Atlantic because we are near the peak of the hurricane season, and you ought to be ready. If you need prep suggestions, hurricane.sc is the place to go.
Hurricane Lee tracked northeast of the Leeward Islands as the sun rose over the region early this morning. Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Lee is our primary concern today, but other features are prowling the Atlantic. We have one other named storm, Tropical Storm Margot, a strong tropical wave that just moved over the Atlantic from Africa, and one other feature that deserves a mention.
A loop of visible satellite images showing a wide angle view of the Atlantic Basin.
Only one of these features might have an effect on South Carolina. Margot is moving northwestward over the eastern Atlantic and will stay far away from us, though it likely will become a hurricane next week. The new tropical wave is between Africa and Cabo Verde and will take some time to organize. It's far too soon to say if it's an eventual problem for us. The other interesting feature is the remains of Tropical Storm Katia, which have been wandering over the eastern Atlantic for days and have drifted back into the tropics. It's currently just to the northwest of Margot and has started to generate thunderstorms again. However, it's unlikely to make a comeback as a tropical cyclone and could get absorbed by Margot.
Our weather isn't likely to include a hurricane, but there are lesser hazards to deal with this weekend. A cold front is moving in and will turn stationary over a part of the state this weekend. That will result in showers and thunderstorms around the state this weekend, most widespread over the Upstate. Repeated downpours on Saturday could result in some minor flooding.
The Weather Prediction Center's Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook, covering Saturday and Saturday night.
The front will gradually dissipate Sunday into Monday, and with less concentrated showers and thunderstorms those days, there is little risk for flooding. Temperatures over the weekend will be held down by clouds and rain, with highs mainly in the lower to middle 80s across the state.
We'll see warmer days on Monday and Tuesday as the storms become less widespread. Highs return to the middle and upper 80s, near average for mid-September, since we'll see more sunshine.
Another cold front (supported by a strong upper trough that we expect will steer Lee away from us) will arrive around midweek. It will bring us a round of thunderstorms, with some possibly severe, on Wednesday or Wednesday night. Cooler air should push into the state later next week. If the front pushes far enough south before stalling, we'll see a stretch of delightful weather late next week and next weekend, but this isn't assured yet. The front may instead become stationary over a part or all of South Carolina.
