Happy New Year! 2024 starts with an active weather pattern, with two noteworthy storms coming South Carolina's way over the next week. The first will affect us tonight and Saturday. A surge of warmth comes with the storm, so it will primarily be a rainmaker for us. However, a small part of the Upstate will see temperatures at or below freezing as the rain gets underway, resulting in a period of freezing rain.
A map showing areas in South Carolina forecast by the National Weather Service to see impactful ice accretion tonight.
Rain will spread over the state after midnight tonight, and all areas will be above freezing at the onset of the rain, but the temperature will quickly fall to around freezing over northern parts of Oconee, Pickens, Greenville, and Spartanburg Counties. While the freezing rain may occur as far south as I-85 briefly late tonight and early Saturday, it is unlikely that there are problems from it that far south. Closer to the North Carolina state line, a few hours of freezing rain will cause a slight ice buildup, but it's unlikely to down trees and power lines. Also, the ground will be above freezing, so most road surfaces will just be wet. However, elevated road surfaces could become icy for a time. Temperatures will rise above freezing for all areas in South Carolina by 9 a.m., and we see only rain after that.
Overall, it's a minor event, and no bread and milk runs are needed (unless, of course, you're out of bread and milk). However, if you plan to travel to or through western North Carolina on Saturday morning, the impacts will be more troublesome there. Higher elevations will see snow and sleet at the start of the storm, and the period of freezing rain across that area will last longer. Roads will be slippery there, and I recommend delaying travel until the afternoon when most of that area sees temperatures rise above freezing and precipitation tapers off.
The rest of the state will see a wave of rain late tonight and then showers on Saturday. An embedded thunderstorm or two, mainly over the Coastal Plain, can bring some areas a downpour. The wet weather will end from west to east during the afternoon and early evening. It will turn breezy during the afternoon, and any embedded thunderstorm can cause locally gusty winds. The severe storm and damaging wind risk will be low, though. It will remain chilly in the Upstate Saturday, with highs only in the 40s and 50s, but the rest of the state will reach the 60s, maybe even 70 in parts of the Lowcountry.
High pressure will be overhead on Sunday, then depart on Monday. Both days look tranquil in South Carolina, with temperatures close to average for early January.
However, by Monday, an intense storm system will shape over the nation's midsection. This storm will have widespread impacts over much of the nation east of the Rockies Monday through Wednesday.
A loop of forecast weather maps from the Weather Prediction Center showing the expected progression of next week's storm across the nation.
We anticipate seeing a winter storm from the Texas Panhandle to the Upper Midwest, heavy rainfall over much of the South and East, an outbreak of severe thunderstorms across the parts of the South, and strong winds over much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation. You should anticipate delays if you're traveling on these stormy days.
We're likely to see major impacts here in South Carolina. My primary concern is going to be the high winds. Winds will be strong and gusty all day, but thunderstorms spawned by the storm will bring high winds aloft down to the surface in some areas, so there is the potential for widespread damaging winds. Cold air damming in the Upstate may protect that area from the strong wind, but the rest of the state will be at risk. Heavy rainfall will occur across the state; early indications are that 2-4 inches will fall statewide, with a chance for locally higher amounts in the Upstate. That could cause flash flooding in a few areas, and minor to moderate river flooding will be an issue after the storm. Coastal flooding will be a concern, too. Astronomical tides will be higher next week because of a new moon on Thursday, and onshore winds around the early morning high tide on Tuesday will probably lead to coastal flooding. High surf and beach erosion will be concerns, too. In addition, the setup will be conducive for a few isolated tornadoes, especially close to our coast. Oh, and if all that wasn't enough, temperatures might fall to freezing as the rain gets underway late Monday night over a part of the Upstate north of I-85, so a period of freezing rain may cause some icy spots there.
So, to understate things, Tuesday looks like an active weather day for us. Adjust any outdoor or travel plans accordingly, and keep in mind that the storm could cause power outages.
Wednesday through Friday next week looks quiet, then another rain event looks likely next weekend. I don't expect another big storm, though.
Look for updates on Sunday and Monday as details about Tuesday's storm become clearer.