One Feature To Track
An area of low pressure formed early yesterday over the western Caribbean Sea, with thunderstorms clustered around it. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) recognized the potential for this to become a tropical cyclone and dubbed it Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 so that they could begin to issue advisories on the feature.
Since then, it has become less organized, though thunderstorms continue to flare over and south of the Greater Antilles.
This loop of true-color satellite images from this morning show the disorganized collection of thunderstorms that is Potential Tropical Cyclone 22.
The forecast track for this system takes it northeastward through the southern Bahamas and then over the Atlantic. NHC forecasters give it a 40 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone on the way. The forecast track keeps it far away from South Carolina. So, this feature won't affect us even if it becomes a tropical cyclone.
NHC's forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Two takes it to the northeast from its current location centered near Jamaica.
As you would expect in November, we have nothing else in the Atlantic Basin that is a concern for development. You may have noticed a swirl of clouds just north of the Yucatan Peninsula on the satellite loop above; this is the remnant of an extratropical storm over the Gulf of Mexico earlier this week. This feature will drift southeastward this weekend as it dissipates.
We're entering the home stretch of the hurricane season now with about two weeks remaining. It's unlikely that we'll see any more tropical impacts to South Carolina, and unless Potential Tropical Cyclone 22 becomes one, we probably won't have any more named storms this year. However, other disasters can affect us, so maintain your readiness. If you need preparation tips, stop by SCEMD's hurricane.sc and earthquake.sc.
Rain Followed By Chill Next Week
Our dry weather pattern continues, but some changes are coming next week. I can hear your sarcasm-laced "Great! Just in time for Thanksgiving!" retorts. Relax, Thanksgiving looks dry, but a round of rain and perhaps even thunderstorms will affect us during the "over the river and through the woods" time.
First things first: a cold front stretches from the eastern Great Lakes region to Texas today. This front will move through South Carolina during the day on Saturday. Meanwhile, a storm centered east of Florida today will track northeastward parallel to our coastline. Neither feature will bring much rain to the state; the latter will cause some light rain along our coast this afternoon and evening, while the former will cause a stray shower or two, mainly over the Upstate, Midlands, and Central Savannah River Area tonight.
There won't be much temperature change behind the front because the air mass coming in will have Pacific origins rather than polar. However, humidity levels will drop; not that our humidity levels are at summertime levels, but I found my clothes saturated with sweat after my pickleball session Thursday evening. Anyway, our weekend looks mostly splendid with sunshine on both days. Most of the state will see 70-75 for highs Saturday, then Sunday looks cooler with highs mostly 65-70. Sunday will start chilly, with daybreak temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in the Upstate to the low 50s in the coastal Lowcountry.
A storm now moving into California will be the culprit to bring us a stretch of unsettled weather during the first part of next week. Ahead of it, the cold front that moves through on Saturday will retreat northward as a warm front on Monday. It will cause increase in cloudiness and perhaps some light rain later in the day or at night.
Warm and moist air will spread over the state on Tuesday as this next storm system moves in. Tuesday looks gray and damp with a shower or two here and there. Then Tuesday night brings rain and the chance for thunderstorms. The rain could linger into Wednesday along our coast, but allow 6-12 hours of leeway on timing with this feature. A faster-moving system would bring most of the rain on Tuesday and Tuesday night, while a slower-moving storm would result in the rain mainly coming Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Thanksgiving day looks dry and chilly as a polar air mass moves in behind our midweek rain. Early signs indicate the day will begin with subfreezing temperatures in the Upstate and mostly 30s elsewhere, then for highs only in the 55-60 range.
Black Friday is also looking cool and dry, but it's looking like we'll have another good chance for rain next weekend. We can use the rain; our drought over the northern part of the state has worsened since last week. While last weekend's rain event overperformed along our Coastal Plain, not much rain fell where the drought is ongoing. So, the U. S. Drought Monitor has expanded their Severe Drought and Exceptional Drought areas.
The latest U. S. Drought Monitor shows an expansion and worsening of the drought areas over the northern half of South Carolina.
Hopefully, we will see substantial rainfall over the rest of the month to ease the drought. However, we will need several rain events like the two coming over the next week or so for significant improvement. In the meantime, if you're in a drought area, continue to conserve water, avoid outdoor burning, and be careful with anything that could start a wildfire.
