We have no threats to South Carolina from the tropics this morning, but there are a few items to watch. The most ominous-looking feature is Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico.
This visible satellite image covering the Gulf of Mexico and most of the Sun Belt shows Rafael and a midlatitude storm over New Mexico.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Rafael moved to the left of the forecast from a week ago, and it continues to take a more westward track across the Gulf of Mexico. Being farther south than expected has allowed it to maintain intensity, and it's on the high end of the Category 2 range as of late morning. The forecast track takes it westward until Saturday night. Then, it will get ripped apart by increasing vertical wind shear. Some of Rafael's moisture will get pulled into the storm centered over New Mexico this morning as it tracks northeastward, while the storm's bottom half instead gets pushed southward toward the Bay of Campeche.
Moisture from Rafael may lead to some enhanced rain as that storm passes by north of us on Sunday into Monday, but I don't think it will be an extreme event. Most areas that see rain over the weekend will welcome it; the exception will be the area around Orangeburg that needed an ark Wednesday night and Thursday.
We continue to watch the remains of a stationary front north of the Lesser and Greater Antilles for possible development. The area of concern is a weak low-pressure area with associated thunderstorms north of the Mona Passage. This weak low will track westward into the southern Bahamas over the weekend, and the National Hurricane Center gives it a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone. Computer models indicate that anything that forms would remain weak. We'll have to keep an eye on it because it's relatively nearby and could get pulled our way by a storm in the usual parade that crosses North America this time of year.
We continue to track disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that was east of the Lesser Antilles a week ago; it's moving through the islands today. Computer models hint that this could become involved in a tropical cyclone forming over the western Caribbean Sea later next week.
The next two names on this year's list are Sara and Tony if we need them.
After next week, we should see unfavorable conditions for tropical cyclone development return to the Atlantic Basin as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (here's a primer on the MJO if you're new here) does its usual thing and shifts eastward, bringing stabilizing sinking air over the Atlantic Basin. By the time the MJO's enhancing phase returns to this part of the world again in December (assuming it remains as robust and well-behaved as it is now), we'll be out of the hurricane season. However, I watch the MJO year-round as it also affects us in the winter and spring. For example, we tend to be colder and stormier in winter when the MJO is enhancing tropical thunderstorms over this part of the world.
As always, stay prepared. Hurricane season ain't over until it's over (and sometimes not even then, I'm sure Yogi Berra would have agreed). hurricane.sc has your back if your need prep advice.
As mentioned above, parts of the Midlands and Central Savannah River Area were blasted with rain Wednesday night and Thursday. In a few spots, it was about a foot of rainfall.
HRAP 2-day rainfall ending at 7 a.m. Thursday.
Coastal areas saw more rain later on Thursday.
Image Source: WeatherBELL
Parts of Orangeburg were inundated, but the flood waters are receding today. The feast-or-famine rainfall pattern in the state continues.
Our odds of seeing more rain in the near term are dependent on how much moisture from the tropical features discussed above get involved with storm systems crossing North America. Through this weekend, a storm over New Mexico today will track through the Great Lakes into Canada. A cold front will move into South Carolina today ahead of this feature and become stationary, but it will only cause some areas of light rain through early Saturday, though most of the day Saturday should be pleasant. It will retreat northward Sunday into Sunday night and generate more light to moderate rain. Another cold front trailing the storm to our north will generate some shower activity Monday and Monday night; it may linger into Tuesday along our coast. Rainfall during this time will depend on whether Rafael's moisture gets shunted this way or ends up going through the Tennessee Valley instead.
After we dry out on Tuesday, Wednesday should be a nice day. Another cold front will move through on Thursday. For once, there is good computer model agreement on timing. Instead, they disagree on how much rain we'll see. The amount of rain we see will depend on how much moisture from the disturbance heading toward The Bahamas gets pulled northward by the front, and that's uncertain today.
Once that front pushes through, we should return to dry conditions for a few days, with another front due early in the following week. So, it looks like the opportunities for rain will be there, but we're not sure how well they will pan our for us. I hope we can get out of the feast-or-famine pattern and have some regular, sensibly-sized rainfall meals for a change!
