Key Points:
- Milton is a compact but extremely powerful hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The forecast track takes the storm across the Florida Peninsula later on Wednesday then over the Atlantic on Thursday.
- South Carolina will see fringe effects from Milton, primarily in the Lowcountry. There is a chance for minor tree and power line damage from Milton's wind on Wednesday night and Thursday in the Lowcountry. 1-3 inches of rain will likely occur during this time, and there can be costal flooding with the afternoon high tides.
- Other parts of South Carolina will be windy Wednesday night and Thursday as Milton passes south, but damaging wind is unlikely. Rain will mainly affect areas south of I-20.
- There remains some uncertainty on the track; a more northward track would result in more significant and widespread impacts, while a more southward track would reduce the impacts to South Carolina.
Milton has rapidly intensified into Beast Mode and is a major hurricane; it's just short of Category 5 intensity, and the National Hurricane Center forecasts it to become a Category 5 hurricane tonight. It will be a big problem for the Florida Peninsula when it arrives on Wednesday as a Category 3 hurricane. We can be thankful that it will remain mostly offshore of South Carolina as it moves away from Florida on Thursday, but we'll see some effects from the storm along our coast.
Milton is a compact hurricane now, but it will grow in size considerably as it moves toward and then crosses Florida, which means that we will likely see some fringe effects along our coast. There remains some uncertainty with the track forecast, but the track has been shifted a bit to the right over the weekend, which is good for us. There will be less significant impacts from Milton along our coast if it takes a more southerly track. There has also been some change in timing since it looks like the storm will move slower, bringing the effects to South Carolina on Wednesday night and Thursday.
A loop of visible satellite images centered on the Gulf of Mexico shows beastly Milton rampaging toward the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
Wind and rain look to be Milton's main impacts. It looks likely that sustained tropical storm force winds will remain offshore of South Carolina, but we may see stronger gusts along the coast, especially in the Lowcountry. Gusts in the Lowcountry, especially at the coast, may exceed 40 mph, which can down a tree or power line here and there. Elsewhere, it looks blustery Wednesday night and Thursday, but damaging winds look unlikely. Of course, a track bringing the storm closer to us would result in stronger winds, but there would be even less wind should the storm track be farther south.
Rain amounts are more challenging to forecast because a cold front will move through the Palmetto State ahead of Milton, and this front will become stationary as Milton mostly passes south of us. If the front becomes stuck over our coast, rainfall over the Lowcountry will be more significant than the 1-3 inches that appear most likely now. Lesser amounts are possible if Milton and the front end up farther south.
For the model watchers out there, be advised that the GFS model, most widely viewed among the casual observers because it's our model and freely available, has a further north track for Milton than other models run by overseas entities. So, consider the GFS and its wetter, windier output with caution. It will be interesting to see who the winner is in the model versus model battle on Milton.
Storm surge should have a lesser impact since Milton will pass by to the south, and winds will come from the northeast to the north. Lower astronomical tides will help this situation as we approach the first quarter moon phase on Thursday. However, the water levels along our coast will run above the usual astronomical levels, and minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible at high tide on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.
The setup still looks unfavorable for a tornado risk from Milton since it will track so far to the south, and we will see cool and stable air settle in with that cold front coming ahead of Milton.
As always, remain prepared, and if you need prep advice, you'll find it at hurricane.sc.
