Key Points:
- A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect along our coast south of the South Santee River, covering Charleston, Berkeley, coastal Colleton, Beaufort and Jasper Counties.
- A Storm Surge watch is in effect from the Edisto River southward, covering coastal Colleton, Beaufort and coastal Jasper Counties.
- The forecast track for Milton from the National Hurricane Center has shifted southward since Monday, reducing the risk we face from it. While it is a dangerous hurricane, it will pass far to our south on Thursday.
- The timing of the impacts we will see has changed slightly; Milton continues to move slower than expected, and the effects on South Carolina will mainly come on Thursday.
- Thursday will be blustery across South Carolina, but peak wind gusts will mainly be in the 35-40 mph range. Ordinarily, this would not be of much concern, but any trees left in a weakened state by Helene could come down.
- Rain from Milton will barely clip the Lowcountry; no flooding rainfall is in the forecast.
- Milton will cause coastal flooding at the afternoon high tides along the Lowcountry coast through Thursday, with moderate to possibly major flooding Thursday afternoon.
Two good things have happened with Milton since yesterday. First, the National Hurricane Center has shifted its forecast track a bit to the right, slightly southward.
Second, the storm weakened slightly. Moments after I sent out Monday's edition, the Hurricane Hunters found that Milton had become a Category 5 hurricane, and at one point last night, the sustained winds were up to 180 mph, tying it with three other hurricanes for third-strongest on record for the Atlantic Basin. With a central barometric pressure of 26.49 inches of mercury (897 millibars), it had the fifth-lowest pressure on record for an Atlantic hurricane. It's not as strong this morning; it's down to a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. The decrease in winds was caused by an eyewall replacement cycle, where a mature hurricane develops a second concentric eyewall outside the main one, and then the inner eyewall decays as the outer eyewall becomes dominant. The hurricane's wind field usually expands as this process occurs, making it a larger storm.
Once this reorganization of Milton's innards is complete, it likely gets stronger again, and it could become a Category 5 hurricane again tonight. However, increasing wind shear likely causes it to weaken again on approach to Florida, and the NHC forecast is for it to be a Category 3 hurricane upon arrival there.
The shift in the forecast track results in only minimal wind and rain impacts in South Carolina. The blustery period we will see later Wednesday night through Thursday can be blamed as much on the strong area of high pressure to our north that will become centered over Michigan by Thursday. The pressure difference (pressure gradient is the technical term) between the high and Milton will result in much of the state seeing gusts in the 30-35 mph range. Ordinarily, this wouldn't be anything to worry about other than annoying crosswinds for motorists. However, we just had Helene 10 days ago and there are likely some trees that just barely survived Helene that will get taken down by a moderately windy period from Milton. Slightly stronger winds will affect the Lowcountry coast, where gusts may be around 40 mph, and this is the area with a chance to see tropical storm force wind if Milton ends up further north than expected.
Milton won't bring much rain to the Palmetto State. The coastal Lowcountry might get a quarter-inch or so, with inland areas seeing more like a tenth of an inch.
The risk for coastal flooding in the Lowcountry is a little more substantial. Winds will be out of the northeast most of the time as Milton passes by, and that will cause water to pile up along our coast. That will cause water levels to run higher than the astronomical tide levels through Thursday. Afternoon high tides will result in minor coastal flooding today and Wednesday, then moderate to possibly major coastal flooding at Thursday afternoon's high tide as Milton passes by far to our south.
Milton won't be a huge storm for South Carolina, but we have about seven weeks of the hurricane season left, so remain vigilant and prepared. As always, you can find prep advice at hurricane.sc.
Sunrise over the Gulf of Mexico allows visible satellite imagery to reveal the beast that is Hurricane Milton, centered just north of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
