We don't have any active tropical cyclones to track in the Atlantic, but there are two areas to watch. The first is nearby, an area of disturbed weather centered southeast of Cape Hatteras. It has an established circulation and thunderstorms on its eastern flank. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) gives it a 20 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone through this weekend.
This loop of visible satellite images shows a swirl off the North Carolina coast that NHC is monitoring for possible tropical development.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
It's moving away to the northeast; it won't have much effect on South Carolina. It and a nearby cold front are churning up the southwestern Atlantic, leading to increased surf at our beaches today and Saturday with an elevated rip current risk, but that's our only concern with this feature.
If we were to get a surprise in the coming days, it would be from a swirl developing along this front as it fizzles to our southeast. A meteorologist cannot be paranoid enough about a stationary front sitting over warm Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters during the hurricane season.
The other area to watch for development in the coming days is the Bay of Campeche. This area is a primary area to watch for development this time of year, and it appears that conditions will become favorable for development around Central America (both on the Atlantic and Pacific sides) over the next week. Most computer models show our first tropical cyclone of the season forming in this area next week (the first name on this year's list is Alberto) but show it taking a track into Mexico and never affecting South Carolina.
This loop of visible satellite images shows disturbed weather off the East Coast southwestward toward the Yucatan Peninsula and two tropical waves over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet. Tropical waves are near 68° west longitude in the Caribbean and 43° west, east of the Lesser Antilles, but these features are devoid of thunderstorm activity and in an area with strong vertical wind shear. However, the one in the Caribbean may become part of the potential Bay of Campeche development, and the one farther east may be a feature to watch once it reaches the western Caribbean next week.
Another tropical wave is emerging from Africa today. However, the eastern Atlantic isn't favorable for development this time of year, and a lot of dry and dusty Saharan air is emerging with the wave.
We don't have any tropical threats to South Carolina, but that doesn't mean there's nothing to do. The best time to prepare for potential tropical troubles is when the sky is blue, especially if your kids or grandkids complain of boredom. As always, you can find a wealth of hurricane preparedness information from our SCEMD friends at hurricane.sc.
With no tropical concerns for the next five days or so, our weather in South Carolina should be routine. Intense heat is no stranger to us in June, and that's what we'll get through Saturday with highs in the 90s both days. Hotter spots in the inland Lowcountry and southern Central Savannah River Area will approach 100° Saturday.
Another cold front is moving our way, but this one will be weaker than the last, which was weaker than the one before it; such is the pattern as we reach our hot season. It won't have much moisture to work with. You can expect less heat and a stray shower or thunderstorm as it pushes through Saturday night and Sunday.
This visible satellite image from late morning today shows a band of clouds over the Northeast and Ohio Valley associated with an approaching front.
Image Source: University of Wisconsin RealEarth
High pressure behind the front will settle into the Bermuda High position by Wednesday. Monday through Wednesday will feature seasonable heat, reduced humidity, and zero rain chances; generally pleasant early summer weather. After that, southeasterly winds will moisten us up. Increasing humidity combined with an upper-level disturbance moving in from the east will bring the potential for pop-up afternoon thunderstorms for the end of next week. An influx of tropical moisture is possible next weekend, but the long-range computer models are not unanimous.
